The race for the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot is nearing its conclusion, and after his two goals against England in the third-place playoff, Kylian Mbappe is now the heavy favourite to win the award.

Those two goals saw the Frenchman move onto 10 goals for the tournament, meaning he is two ahead of Messi ahead of the World Cup final. Can the 39-year-old realistically score a hat-trick to pick up the award?

The only other man in the conversation is Mikel Oyarzabal, who has scored five goals. The Spaniard will need to score six goals against Argentina to win the Golden Boot.

Below, we compare the top goalscorer odds from Bet365, BetMGM, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Betfred to help give you an idea of where the value lies in the market. The page will be updated each time to reflect the latest odds from the best World Cup betting sites.

Latest World Cup 2026 top scorer odds

World Cup top scorer odds compared

Odds to be the top scorer at the 2026 World Cup from bet365, BetMGM, Ladbrokes, William Hill and Betfred. The best price available for each player is highlighted.
Player bet365 BetMGM Ladbrokes William Hill Betfred
Kylian Mbappe1/251/251/251/251/25
Lionel Messi1212111111
Mikel Oyarzabal5001000500500500

Odds are fractional, correct at time of publishing and subject to change. Always check the bookmaker’s site before placing a bet. 18+ | BeGambleAware.org

Odds correct as of 8:30 Sunday, July 19. Odds subject to change. 18+. T&Cs apply. GambleAware.org.

  • Favourite: Kylian Mbappe
  • Current top scorer: Kylian Mbappe (10)
  • Best price available: Messi at 1/25 (1.04)
  • Notable mover: Kylian Mbappe

Who are the favourites to be World Cup top scorer?

Kylian Mbappe

Player spotlight

France

Kylian Mbappé

10
Goals
4
Assists
8
Played
1.29
Goals/90
70
Mins/goal
41
Shots
24%
Conversion
56%
Accuracy

Kylian Mbappe is now the odds-on favourite to win the Golden Boot, with his two goals against England taking him to double digits for the tournament, and into first place on the list of the tournament’s all-time top goalscorers.

Mbappe has had a stunning World Cup, and reaching 10 goals is undeniably a great achievement. However, there are some people out there who feel goals scored in the third-place playoff should not count towards the Golden Boot.

While Mbappe came here looking for his second World Cup, he will have to settle for his second Golden Boot instead.

Lionel Messi

Player spotlight

Argentina

Lionel Messi

8
Goals
4
Assists
7
Played
1.16
Goals/90
78
Mins/goal
34
Shots
24%
Conversion
53%
Accuracy

Lionel Messi has failed to score in each of his last two outings for Argentina, which has seen him fall behind Mbappe in the race for the Golden Boot.

Messi now needs to score a hat-trick in the World Cup to leapfrog Mbappe, and while that may seem far-fetched, you would be foolish to write him off, given all that he has achieved in his career.

Alternatively, Messi could score twice and provide one assist to finish higher than Mbappe.

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Mikel Oyarzabal

Player spotlight

Spain

Mikel Oyarzabal

5
Goals
1
Assists
7
Played
0.83
Goals/90
109
Mins/goal
22
Shots
23%
Conversion
50%
Accuracy

Mikel Oyarzabal’s hopes of winning the Golden Boot are extremely slim, hence why he is priced as long as 1000/1 by some bookmakers.

The Real Sociedad man has scored five goals in North America so far this summer, and he would happily end on that number if it means picking up a World Cup winner’s medal.

World Cup top scorer prediction

  • Our pick: Lionel Messi
  • Best odds: 12/1 at Bet365
  • Current goals: 8
  • Why he appeals: There is no longer any value in backing Mbappe to win the award, and Messi could have one final great performance in him on Sunday night.
  • Main risk: Spain keeping him out of the game.

Check out the TNT Sport betting hub for more World Cup tips and predictions.

How does World Cup Golden Boot betting work?

Golden Boot betting at the World Cup is simply betting on which player you think will finish with the most goals at the tournament. In the event that two or more players finish on the same number of goals, there are a few potential scenarios that will play out, depending on the bookmaker. Some bookies will pay out while others will potentially void the bet.

The most common outcome is that bookmakers will follow FIFA’s rules to determine the winner. FIFA states that if two or more players finish the tournament on the same number of goals, then the Golden Boot winner will be determined by which player has the most assists. If this is also a tie, then the player who has played the fewest minutes wins. Regardless of whether you are using a new betting site or an old one, make sure to read the market’s terms and conditions before placing a bet.

All goals scored in normal and extra time count towards a player’s tally. However, goals scored in penalty shootouts do not.

What matters when betting on World Cup top scorer odds?

Key factors:

  • Team progression: The deeper a team goes, the more opportunities there will be to score goals.
  • Penalty duties: Penalty takers have a major edge.
  • Minutes security: Avoid players who are likely to be rotated or substituted early.
  • Fixture difficulty: Weaker opponents can create early scoring spikes.
  • Current goal tally: Live tournament bettors should not ignore goals already banked.
  • Assists / tie-break rules: Relevant if betting on the official Golden Boot rather than the bookmaker’s dead-heat settlement.
  • Injuries and suspensions: Prices can move quickly, so back players who are rarely injured where possible.