Is there any stopping Jonas Vingegaard and Jonathan Milan? - Jens Voigt's 2026 Giro d'Italia preview

The three-week race in Italy features six mountain-top finishes and covers 3,466km, with a total altitude gain of 48,700m.

Last year’s winner Simon Yates will not be back to defend his title after announcing his retirement from cycling earlier this year.

There will still be a Yates at the race as Simon's brother Adam will lead UAE Team Emirates-XRG.

Adam looks set to be amongst the top contenders at the Giro, but TNT Sports expert Jens Voigt sees one "clear favourite" to win the pink jersey: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease A Bike).

"If he starts and rides through to Rome without a major incident, I expect him to be the decisive general classification [GC] rider," said Voigt.

"The race contains a tactical hinge - the first major mountain test, Stage 7 finishing on Blockhaus - where a rider of Vingegaard’s calibre can 'put a stamp' on the race, take the maglia rosa [general classification leader jersey], and then rely on a team prepared to protect him.

"The logic is straightforward: if you have the strongest GC rider and a roster assembled to protect him - domestiques who can stay with the leader deep into climbs, set tempo, and control breakaways - you can control the race from a key mountain stage onward. Visma-Lease A Bike’s selection signals a single priority: Jonas in pink. 

"There are always caveats - crashes, illness, tactical surprises - but barring a major incident, I expect Vingegaard to take time on the big climbs and defend it to the finish."

Two-time Tour de France winner Vingegaard is riding the Giro for the first time and bidding to complete the set of Grand Tour wins.

He has only competed twice this season but has won on both occasions at Paris-Nice and Volta a Catalunya.

Voigt thinks Visma’s team selection should put Vingegaard in prime position to win the Giro.

"They have a well-balanced, GC-focused squad whose single priority is Jonas Vingegaard in the maglia rosa," the German said.

"Their selection is a classic sign of a team built to control a three-week race: they have effectively omitted a protected sprinter and chosen riders to protect and pace the leader in the mountains. 

"Domestiques who can stay with a GC leader deep into climbs, set tempo, and control breakaways are the practical basis for race control. The internal clarity - everyone receiving the same directive that this Giro is ‘Jonas only’ - is exactly what allows a team to execute a consistent plan and defend a jersey once obtained."

Just as Vingegaard is the strong favourite for GC glory, Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) looks the one to beat in the battle to win the points classification.

Milan won the points jersey on both his previous Giro appearances in 2023 and 2024, and has notched up six stage victories this season.

"He will have the maglia ciclamino [points jersey], for sure, on the last day, and he is my big, big, big favourite for taking the maglia rosa on the first day already," says Voigt.

"Bunch sprints are inherently volatile - timing, positioning, and lead-out execution decide outcomes - but Milan has a particularly strong setup.

"Milan combines sprint speed with a well-drilled lead-out: Simone Consonni as the final lead-out man, supported by powerful riders such as Max Walscheid and Tim Torn Teutenberg. That structure makes Milan the prime candidate for the points classification and for early sprint victories, including the opening stage if it finishes in a bunch sprint.

"Realistic challengers include Dylan Groenewegen and Kaden Groves; both can win stages if they arrive in form and the lead-out or race circumstances favour them. Even so, execution in the final 150-250 metres is decisive - a slightly slower sprinter can win with a perfect lead-out, and a dominant sprinter can still lose if positioning or timing is off."

Points at the Grand Tours are awarded for stage victories (weighted more towards the flat and sprint stages) and also intermediate sprints on each day.

The last time INEOS Grenadiers won a Grand Tour was in 2021, when Egan Bernal rode to victory at the Giro.

Bernal will be a co-leader at this year’s Giro along with Thymen Arensman for INEOS, now known as Netcompany-Ineos.

But Voigt thinks it will be difficult for Bernal to compete for a podium place.

Bernal suffered serious injuries in a crash in 2022 and has not returned to the same level since. He also missed several races this season due to a knee issue.

"I’m cautious about expecting a true surprise from Egan Bernal at the level of a Giro win or an easy podium," said Voigt.

"Severe crashes have long-term consequences, and it is difficult for many riders to return to absolute peak after catastrophic injury; history informs my view. 

"I’m glad Bernal recovered to race professionally and to live normally, but sporting expectations must be tempered: a top-10 is plausible and Bernal can be visible and competitive on the high mountains, but a podium would require many things to go perfectly.

"Expect strong moments and animation from him in the mountains, but not a clear challenge to the very top favourites without near-perfect circumstances."

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