Mathieu van der Poel, Jonathan Milan, Biniam Girmay or Tim Merlier? Ranking the green jersey favourites for the 2025 Tour de France

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With Jonathan Milan and Kaden Groves making their Tour de France debuts, and previous winners Biniam Girmay and Jasper Philipsen present alongside the in-form Tim Merlier, the battle for the green jersey promises to be fierce this July. But with more summit finishes than bunch sprints on the cards, whoever takes the maillot vert is going to need to be clinical and more versatile than usual.

'It's a hat-trick!' - Girmay in control of green jersey after winning stop-start sprint

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A flat-track bully is unlikely to win the green jersey in a Tour de France, live on TNT Sports and discovery+, where the opening week is a puncheur’s paradise, and the race is stacked with six summit finishes and two time trials.

Looking at the route and terrain, you could go as far as to say that Lidl-Trek chose the wrong season to withhold Mads Pedersen at the expense of Jonathan Milan, who makes his long-awaited debut.

In any ordinary year, a sprinter of the calibre of Milan would be a shoo-in for the green jersey. But in 2025? It’s unlikely - unless the 24-year-old develops Sean Kelly levels of versatility between now and the Grand Depart in Lille on July 5.

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That said, the points system for the green jersey classification is still weighed towards the sprinters, with more points available at the finish on ‘flat’ stages than on the hills, in the mountains or against the clock.

It is just that this year, the summit finishes outnumber the expected number of bunch sprints, while a multitude of Classics-style lumpy stages in the opening week certainly favour all-rounders and punchers in the mould of the absent Pedersen over the pure sprinters like Milan.

The upshot is that the intermediate sprints – of which there are just one per road stage – could well be more fiercely contested, especially as most of these sprints come before the day’s major climbs.

For instance, the sprint in Stage 19 comes just 8km from the start and ahead of the five catergorised climbs.

How this all affects the daily battle for the breakaway remains to be seen – but it should be a whole lot of fun finding out.

'So many in the frame!' - Girmay storms to second Tour stage win

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Green jersey points breakdown:

Flat stages (Stages 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, 15, 17, 21) 50-30-20-18-16-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2 points for the first 15 riders
Hilly finish / medium mountain stages (Stages 6, 16, 20): 30-25-22-19-17-15-13-11-9-7-6-5-4-3-2 points
Mountain stages and individual TT (Stages 5, 10, 12, 13, 14, 18, 19) : 20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points
Intermediate sprints: 20-17-15-13-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points

Riders who have not made our top 10 include the 2023 winner on the Champs-Elysees, Jordi Meeus, and his Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe team-mate Danny van Poppel.

There are also veterans Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech), Magnus Cort (Uno-X Mobility), Fernando Gaviria (Movistar), Matteo Trentin (Tudor Pro Cycling), Arnaud Demare (Arkea-B&B Hotels) and Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain-Voctorious), plus the debutants Pavel Bittner (Picnic PostNL) and Thibau Nys (Lidl-Trek).

Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco-AlUla) also misses out, despite his three sprint wins this season. Last year, the Dutchman showed that he could still cut the mustard in Dijon to snare his sixth Tour stage triumph.

But the 32-year-old has never been a major factor in the green jersey competition – and his all-or-nothing approach, eschewing intermediate sprints, will certainly count against him, as will those lumpier days in the opening week.

Taking the scoring system and the route, as well as the track record and form of the riders in contention, here are the top 10 green jersey contenders ranked in reverse order...

10. Arnaud De Lie (Lotto)

Arnaud De Lie.

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The Belgian struggled to impose himself during his debut Tour de France last year and returns to the race short of form and fitness, with just a single win to his name back in February.

The 23-year-old withdrew from Gent-Wevelgem in the spring after suffering a mental burnout. His frustrating season of setbacks took another turn for the worse when he returned two months later, only to crash into a pole and hurting his arm in the Antwerp Port Epic.

The Tour de Suisse yielded no joy for De Lie, so eyebrows were raised when the Belgian was named in the Lotto squad for the Tour.

But that lumpy first week is – on paper – ideal for a rider who, if he catches a break, could blossom.

Wins in 2025: 1

9. Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

Kaden Groves

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With Jasper Philipsen also included in Alpecin’s Tour roster and Groves having already raced the Giro d’Italia, it is a surprise that the Australian has been given the nod to make his Tour debut.

The 26-year-old won in Naples in the Giro but has not raced since finishing runner-up behind Olav Kooij in the final stage in Rome.

Fielding two sprinters in Groves and Philipsen may give Alpecin’s rivals a bit of a headache, but it also means that the green jersey points could well be shared out among the team – especially with Mathieu van der Poel also present…

Wins in 2025: 1

8. Bryan Coquard (Cofidis)

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Now 33, the Frenchman has never won a Tour stage before – the closest occasion being his second place to Andre Greipel on the Champs-Elysees in 2015 or the time he agonisingly lost in a photo finish to Marcel Kittel one year later in Limoges.

In fact, last year, Coquard failed to finish higher than seventh place in any of the bunch sprints. So what is he doing in these rankings?

Quite simply, he’s consistent and a keen amasser of intermediate sprint points – a tactic that saw him come third place in the green jersey competition last July, ahead of that Slovenian chap who won six stages and the yellow jersey.

There’s no way Coquard will don green in Paris, but he certainly merits inclusion in this list – even if he has not won since the Tour Down Under back in January.

Wins in 2025: 1

7. Biniam Girmay (Intermarche-Wanty)

Biniam Girmay

Image credit: AFP

Last year, the Eritrean made history with a first-ever African green jersey off the back of three stage wins.

Twelve months on, Girmay remains without a result since that third victory on July 11 in Villeneuve-sur-Lot.

Five times a runner-up in 2025 suggests that the 25-year-old has not completely lost it, but Girmay’s results are a minor cause for concern to Intermarche-Wanty.

All will be completely forgotten if he returns to winning ways this July – and the opening week suits Bini to a tee.

Still, it will be an uphill challenge for him to repeat his green heroics from last year. Lucky there are lots of uphill sprints, then.

Wins in 2025: 0

6. Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

The Belgian has not been his usual prolific self in 2025, with more second places to his name than wins.

But Philipsen is rarely not a factor in a bunch sprint, especially when he can benefit from Mathieu van der Poel’s expert piloting skills.

This year, the 27-year-old should also have fastman Kaden Groves as part of his lead-out train – something that could propel him to glory, or add unwanted pressure to perform.

Jasper Philipsen

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Sending both Philipsen and Groves to the Tour could backfire – and it remains to be seen if the Australian is there as a hedge should Philipsen continue to be beaten by his countryman Tim Merlier.

Jasper Disaster or Jasper The Master? All will be revealed soon.

It’s worth remembering that both of Philipsen’s wins this year have been in races where Merlier was contesting. Although in head-to-heads, the Soudal sprinter has won on five occasions.

Wins in 2025: 2

5. Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike)

Wout van Aert

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Which Wout will we see this July? The one who has nine Tour stage wins and took the green jersey in 2022, or the one who has struggled with injuries while balancing his ambitions and his domestique duties for leader Jonas Vingegaard? Probably an amalgam of all the above.

After a frustrating spring, Van Aert began to show glimpses of the Van Aert of old at the Giro, where he took a stage win over the Tuscan strade bianche before playing an integral role in team-mate Simon Yates’s pink heist on the Colle delle Finestre.

If Vingegaard is going to win the Tour again, the Dane will need Van Aert pulling off similar miracles. But with the first major summit finish not coming until Stage 12 to Hautacam, Van Aert should get his chances to ride for himself.

The opening week features numerous opportunities for the 30-year-old Belgian – while his ability to get in the breakaway as a satellite rider in the mountains will put him in a good position to snare points in the intermediate sprints in the second half of the race.

A lot will hinge on how the legs are after his Giro exploits and how tight the yellow leash will be around Van Aert’s neck.

Oh, and whether the 30-year-old fully recovers in time from the illness that kept him out of the Belgian national championships.

Wins in 2025: 1

4. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)

Tadej Pogacar

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The Slovenian added another weapon to his armoury at the Criterium du Dauphine: he defied the returning peloton and won an opening stage that was destined for a bunch sprint.

Does that make Pogacar a sprinter? No, don’t be silly. But it showed that he can even beat the sprinters on their own terrain.

Not that he really needs to do so this July to be in with a chance of green: four lumpy Classics-style stages in the opening week could easily coax the best from Pogacar, who also has six summit finishes and the mountain time trial to look forward to.

Last year, Pogacar’s six stage wins were enough to see him come fourth in the green jersey standings.

If that seems impressive, it’s worth remembering that the aforementioned Bryan Coquard – who has never won a single stage in any Tour – still came third, largely thanks to his showing in the intermediate sprints (the French veteran didn’t finish higher than seventh in any of the sprint finishes).

But with Pogacar likely to be once again dominant in the mountains and on the lumpy finishes – and without a single sprinter like Girmay likely to pick up multiple wins – the Slovenian could end up in green simply by pushing for yellow.

Wins in 2025: 9

3. Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek)

Jonathan Milan of Italy and Team Lidl - Trek celebrates at finish line as stage winner during the 77th Criterium du Dauphine 2025, Stage 2 a 204.6km stage from Premilhat to Issoire / #UCIWT / on June 09, 2025 in Issoire, France.

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Lidl-Trek notched six wins in the Giro largely thanks to Mads Pedersen, whose four wins saw him secure the maglia ciclamino in style.

While the team may struggle to replicate such success in the Tour, between debutants Milan and Thibau Nys, they should be a force to be reckoned with – particularly in the opening week.

While 20-year-old Nys will get his chances on the lumpier stages in northern France, 24-year-old Milan will look to get his Tour career off to the best possible start with a win and the yellow jersey in Lille.

Whether he can do enough to take the green jersey – and then keep it through the mountains – remains to be seen.

Given the succession of summit finishes, Milan may even struggle to make it to Paris. But on his day, the Italian is one of the best sprinters in the business.

It is almost inconceivable that he leaves this Tour empty handed – especially with a tried-and-tested leadout train boasting the likes of Jasper Stuyven, Edward Theuns and Simone Consonni.

Wins in 2025: 6

2. Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step)

Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step) celebrates after winning Stage 5 of the Baloise Belgium Tour 2025 on June 22, 2025.

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There is currently no better sprinter in the peloton than the Belgian. That is not an opinion – it is a fact.

The only sprinter to hit double figures this year makes his first appearance at the Tour since 2021 and does so in fiery form: 32-year-old Merlier has 10 wins from 13 bunch sprints this season – a win rate that even eclipses the indomitable Tadej Pogacar.

Surely that makes him the outright favourite for green? On paper, perhaps. But with only five or six bunch sprints on the cards this July, Merlier won’t have as many chances to build up a solid lead ahead of all those stages in the mountains.

What’s more, the European champion's lead-out train at Soudal will be seriously compromised by Remco Evenepoel’s support unit.

But with Evenepoel found out in the mountains of the Dauphine, perhaps Soudal will be entering the Tour with their eyes less on yellow than on green.

Wins in 2025: 10

1. Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)

Tadej Pogacar y Mathieu Van der Poel antes de tomar la salida en la 7ª etapa del Critérium del Dauphine

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Given Alpecin have two top-tier sprinters in their squad in Philipsen and Groves, it might seem a folly to predict the green jersey going to a third rider from the same team.

But Van de Poel’s piloting duties should ensure he picks up some points for himself in the bunch sprints, while never has an opening week of the Tour been more tailormade to the Dutchman than this.

With four Classics-style stages with punchy finishes in the first week – including Mur-de-Bretagne, where Van der Poel took his first ever yellow jersey in 2021 – the 30-year-old should build on the green platform he constructed in the Dauphine.

It is amazing that Van der Poel’s win at Mur-de-Bretagne four years ago remains his only stage triumph at the Tour.

But with the former world champion in such scintillating form this season, that will surely change in July.

Some go as far as to say that this is the first time that the Tour is the central focus of his season, making a masterclass inevitable.

‘Brutal for everyone else!’ - Vingegaard, Pogacar, Evenepoel & Van der Poel launch attack

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Whether this manifests itself into showing off the green jersey on the Champs-Elysees is unclear at this point.

Van der Poel has never previously been involved in the battle for green on the Tour – indeed, he has only reached Paris twice in four efforts.

So it’s a big call to suggest he can go one better than he did at the Dauphine and add the maillot vert to his swelling palmares. But it seems like the kind of challenge he is ready to accept at this stage in his career.

Wins in 2025: 4

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