Ranking the yellow jersey favourites for the 2025 Tour de France - including Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel
Updated 03/07/2025 at 10:39 GMT+1
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Last year’s podium finishers - Tadej Pogacar, Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel - top the billing, but who else is in the mix in the battle for the yellow jersey at the 2025 Tour de France? Ahead of the Grand Depart in Lille, live on TNT Sports and discovery+, we rank the top 10 contenders – with Pogacar looking for a fourth win and Vingegaard hoping to level their head-to-head with a third.
The Gruppetto with Rob Hatch: Pogacar mighty but did Dauphine highlight weakness?
Video credit: TNT Sports
It is hard looking beyond another two-way tussle for yellow between Slovenia’s Tadej Pogacar and Denmark’s Jonas Vingegaard in the 2025 Tour de France – especially after the world champion’s comfortable recent win in the Criterium du Dauphine.
But the counters return to zero in Lille on Saturday, July 5, as the 112th edition of the Tour de France gets under way, live on TNT Sports and discovery+.
And while the overwhelming favourites remain the two riders who, between them, have won the previous five editions, there are still many other riders pushing to write themselves into the narrative for the yellow jersey.
If you discount the year Vingegaard made his debut and came a surprise second place to Pogacar over five minutes down in 2021, the time difference between the Tour’s two top performers from the previous four editions is just 1’25" in the Slovenian’s favour.
Take away bonus seconds and Vingegaard has the advantage by just three seconds – from a total of 84 stages and 13,667km in the saddle. That it comes down to so little emphasises what an absorbing rivalry we are experiencing right now.
And yet those three seconds are also highly misleading. The smallest gap between the two riders in Paris has been 2’43" – the Dane’s winning margin when he first won the Tour in 2022.
In fact, the only ever stage race where there has been less than a minute separating Pogacar and Vingegaard was last month’s Dauphine, which the Slovenian won by 58 seconds.
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Evenepoel pinpoints where he needs to improve to close gap to Pogacar ahead of Tour de France
Video credit: TNT Sports
This surely bodes well for those of us who want a tight race between the two best riders – rather than a cakewalk from whoever has the best legs and/or fewest injury worries.
For as things stand, when one of them beats the other, it is convincingly – we’re talking Miguel Indurain verses everyone else, rather than Greg LeMond vs Laurent Fignon in 1989.
Put differently, perhaps it is a sign of just how intense their rivalry is: the only way one can come out on top is to utterly destroy the other.
And for all the lack of jeopardy, there is something strangely poetic and compelling about that.
Before we rank the top 10 contenders for the maillot jaune in reverse order, let’s spare a few words for those who failed to make the cut.
Riding his final Tour, the 2018 champion Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) will hunt a stage while riding in support of team-mate Carlos Rodriguez, who has not shown enough this year to be a factor in the battle for yellow.
Rodriguez came fifth in his debut Tour in 2023 and seventh last year, but a top 10 looks beyond the 24-year-old on current form.
France’s Lenny Martinez (Bahrain-Victorious) has also struggled for consistency this year – and it is unlikely that he, or any French rider, will be a factor in the GC battle, especially now that David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) will be watching from his sofa.
Joining Gaudu on the sidelines is Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), who picked up an illness while training at home in Ecuador and has been ruled out of the Tour.
Given his Giro exploits, it was hard to look beyond a stage-hunting or polka dot jersey-seeking role for Carapaz anyway. He will now focus on the Vuelta.
Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Kevin Vauquelin (Arkea B&B Hotels) and Oscar Onley (Team Picnic PostNL) were all pretty solid in the Tour de Suisse, but the Tour is different gravy and none of the trio has yet proved himself to be a genuine GC contender.
Meanwhile, the likes of Enric Mas (Movistar), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain-Victorious) and Eddie Dunbar (Team Jayco-AlUla) are all lagging behind compared to their peers.
Finally, Norway’s Tobias Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility) took a solid fifth place in the Dauphine. And while he should build on his career-best 30th place in the Tour, it won’t be enough for the 25-year-old to crack the top 10.
In reverse order, and without further ado, here is that top 10...
10. Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)
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Matteo Jorgenson
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One of three Visma-Lease a Bike riders to make the list, the double Paris-Nice winner will prove his worth alongside team leader Jonas Vingegaard this July while continuing to build up his Grand Tour pedigree.
The American’s sixth place in the Dauphine showed that he is coming to the boil nicely this summer, although a stacked GC roster may mean that Jorgenson struggles to improve on his eighth place in last year’s Tour.
9. Ben O’Connor (Team Jayco-AlUla)
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Ben O'Connor
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Things have been far from plain sailing for the 29-year-old Australian since his move from Decathlon, with O’Connor still seeking his first win.
Seventh place in the Tour de Suisse does not bode that well, but O’Connor now has the experience and know-how to hit peak form in July.
Provided he emerges from a tough opening week unscathed and still within touching distance of the race summit, O’Connor should return to the top 10 in the Tour – but it will be almost impossible for him to match his fourth-place finish in 2021.
Yet, coming so close to winning the Vuelta last year will give O’Connor the confidence of making a splash in France, ditto his second place in last year’s Worlds.
8. Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)
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Mattias Skjelmose of Denmark and Team Lidl - Trek celebrates at podium as race winner during the 59th Amstel Gold Race
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Still learning the ropes as a Grand Tour rider, the Dane’s fifth place in last year’s Vuelta will give him reason to believe he can improve on his 29th in his maiden Tour in 2023.
Crashes and the cold weather in the spring have marred the 24-year-old’s campaign, but Skjelmose looked solid in Paris-Nice prior to his withdrawal and was decent in Itzulia, too, before winning the Amstel Gold Race.
After two months out, Skjelmose returned with a win in the Andorra MoraBanc Classica – and while he may lack some race kilometres in the legs, he should be able to find his feet before the Tour’s first summit finish, which comes in Stage 10 after the second weekend of action.
7. Simon Yates (Visma-Lease a Bike)
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Simon Yates
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The Briton is unlikely to be a major factor in the fight for yellow but his composed and measured victory in the Giro d’Italia showcased his ability and experience.
Should Vingegaard crash or falter during the succession of Classics-style lumpy stages in the opening week, Visma would like to be able to call on both Yates and Jorgenson to pick up the pieces.
Twelfth last time round, but fourth in 2023, Yates is a mountain domestique de luxe who can still deliver the goods at the age of 32.
With an unexpected pink jersey in the bag following a morale-boosting redemptive ride over the Colle de Finestre at the Giro, Yates will have no pressure to deliver and will ride knowing that anything extra this July will be a bonus.
6. Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe)
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Primoz Roglic
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The Slovenian veteran’s catalogue of bad luck both at the Tour and in general is well documented and it is hard to see the 35-year-old being a genuine contender this July after his travails in Italy this May.
Roglic has not raced since his early withdrawal from the Giro, and in those months off the bike, his rivals seem to have only got better, while even some of his team-mates have put in a good case for leadership.
But Roglic’s overall win in the Volta a Catalunya prior to his rollercoaster Giro showed that – when things go to plan – there are few better stage racers in the business. The problem, however, is that things rarely go to plan…
The opening week in northern France, while a chance for Roglic to regain his race sharpness, will also throw the usual array of banana skins in front of his figurative wheels – and we all know that Roglic is a magnet to this kind of misfortune.
Meanwhile, Roglic’s Red Bull team looks far weaker in comparison to Visma and UAE.
5. Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora Hansgrohe)
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Florian Lipowitz
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All is not lost for Red Bull, however, with the young German putting in a timely reminder of his potential at the Dauphine.
The 24-year-old rode aggressively during the annual Tour dress rehearsal to secure the white jersey and third place on the podium behind Pogacar and Vingegaard.
If he is ahead of a certain Belgian double Olympic champion at this stage in the season, then the Tour is Lipowitz’s oyster.
With all eyes on Roglic, the youngster may go under the radar in his debut Tour. Even with his leader on song, there is good reason to think that Lipowitz may even improve on his seventh place in his debut Vuelta last September.
A lot will depend on the condition of Roglic and whether Lipowitz has to sacrifice himself for the Slovenian or ride for himself. Given recent history, Lipowitz may end up doing both.
4. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)
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Remco Evenepoel
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If trouncing both Vingegaard and Pogacar in the individual time trial in the Dauphine in early June was enough to get fans excited about a three-way battle for yellow in July, the manner in which Evenepoel quickly faded in the mountains was cause for concern.
The 25-year-old eventually finished off the podium and over four minutes down on the Slovenian race winner – proof, perhaps, that he is still somewhat short of being a genuine contender at the Tour.
The opening week and the flat time trial around Caen will certainly suit Evenepoel, who is still searching for his top form after back-to-back shoulder injuries.
But a weak team missing both Mikel Landa and Louis Vervaeke will surely add to Evenepoel’s woes in the high mountains, where the wheels could yet again fall off the wagon of his GC ambitions.
3. Joao Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
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Joao Almeida (UAE Team Emirates – XRG) celebrates after winning Stage 4 of the 2025 Tour de Suisse on June 18, 2025.
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That the most in-form rider beyond Tadej Pogacar is one of his team-mates must be demoralising for UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s rivals.
Since coming a lowly sixth in Paris-Nice, the 26-year-old Portuguese has put together a scintillating all-conquering run to become the first rider in history to win Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour of Romandie and the Tour de Suisse in the same season.
Having finished runner-up in both the Volta a la Communitat Valenciana and the Volta ao Algarve, Almeida has gone on to notch nine wins in what is proving to be his most successful season yet.
Of course, the Tour is an entirely different kettle of fish – and it will be the first time in 2025 that Almeida has ridden alongside his indisputable leader Pogacar.
But if he managed to come fourth last year while in the service of the Slovenian, then – given his superior form 12 months later – there is nothing to suggest Almeida cannot go one better and make the podium in Paris.
Crucially for UAE, he is enough of a GC factor to be a cause for concern to all their rivals – and he will be ready to step up should the unthinkable happen to the world champion.
2. Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike)
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Tadej Pogacar and UAE Team Emirates-XRG along with Jonas Vingegaard and Team Visma Lease a Bike compete in the chase group during Stage 8 of the Criterium du Dauphine on June 15, 2025
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Just how much the Dane was holding back in the Dauphine we will soon find out – but as things stand, on the eve of the Tour, the momentum is not with him, but his big rival for yellow.
Back-to-back Tour wins for Vingegaard took the wind out of Pogacar’s sails – until the Dane’s injury last year at Itzulia saw the pendulum swing the other way. And it has yet to show any signs of swinging back.
Taking everything into account, Vingegaard looks far less likely to join his rival with three Tour wins than the prospect of Pogacar pouncing for a fourth win of his own in Paris. But we should not write off the 28-year-old yet.
He got the better of his rival in the time trial at the Dauphine, where he came runner-up in five of the eight stages – suggesting that he is knocking on the door of the kind of form Pogacar (who won three of those stages) is already demonstrating so effortlessly.
With the first serious mountaintop finish not coming until Stage 12 to Hautacam, Vingegaard has ample time to condition his legs.
His Visma team are arguably the strongest on paper, while the longer and higher climbs of the second and third week suit the Dane far more than his Slovenian counterpart.
It would take a colossal performance, but not one beyond the realms of plausibility.
1. Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
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Tadej Pogacar
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There is a new weapon in the Slovenian’s armoury this year since he pretty much won everything he entered last year: the devastating-unseated-attack-with-apparent-minimal-effort-while-seemingly-breathing-effortlessly-through-the-nose.
Such a move was on display for his second win in the Dauphine, when he pulled clear of Vingegaard on the same climb to Combloux where the Dane beat him in the Tour’s time trial in 2023.
A lot has changed in those two years. Above all, Pogacar has yet to lose a single stage race while also morphing into one of the best one-day racers of his generation.
In fact, since winning his debut Tour in 2020, Pogacar has won 14 out of his last 17 stage races with zero DNFs.
So it is not as if making the 26-year-old the outright favourite for yellow in Paris is in any way fanciful. On the contrary, predicting anything but a Pogacar triumph seems borderline psychotic.
While UAE Team Emirates-XRG appear to be incapable of winning a Grand Tour with anyone not called Pogacar, none of that matters when he is so consistently brilliant. This year, he has nine wins from 22 race days and a further five podium finishes.
Not only does he enter the Tour one victory shy of a century of pro wins, but he also stands a good chance of toppling Mark Cavendish’s record 35 stage wins – a tally he is set to level by the time he turns 31. Sorry, Cav…
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Stream the 2025 Tour de France live on TNT Sports and discovery+
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