Paul Seixas - What can we expect from French prodigy on his Tour de France debut for Decathlon CMA CGM?

Whisper it quietly, but the host nation finally appears to have a rider capable of winning the Tour de France. Just do not bank on it happening this summer.

At the tender age of 19 years, nine months and 19 days, Paul Seixas will roll down the start ramp of the team time trial in Barcelona with his Decathlon-CMA CGM team-mates in tow as the youngest rider to appear at the Tour de France in 89 years. And if you believe the hype, Seixas is an outside bet to end one of France’s longest sporting droughts.

It’s been 41 long years since Bernard Hinault was the last Frenchman to wear the fabled maillot jaune on the Champs-Elysees, with "The Badger" riding to his record-equalling fifth Tour win in 1985.

Since then, French riders have come second twice - Jean-Christophe Peraud in 2014 and Romain Bardet in 2016, albeit 7’37” and 4’05” down on Vincenzo Nibali and Chris Froome respectively - with no Frenchman coming close to topping the podium in Paris.

It is not quite the 43 years that France went without a Roland-Garros champion before Yannick Noah in 1983, nor the 68 years and 16 tournaments it took Les Bleus to win the World Cup before their 3-0 drubbing of Brazil - on home soil - in 1998. Plus, France have yet to win the Rugby World Cup in its 39-year history, losing a number of finals across the decades.

But 41 years represents a yawning chasm for the nation that launched the original Grand Tour in 1903, a nation responsible for some of the great cyclists of all time in Lucien Petit-Breton, Louison Bobet, Jacques Anquetil, Bernard Thevenet, Laurent Fignon and that man Hinault.

Now, one week after France’s footballers could well lift their third World Cup trophy in 28 years in North America, a wiry-haired, whippet-thin teenage cycling sensation from Lyon could not only end the suffocating Pogacar-Vingegaard duopoly - and with it a national drought going on for four decades - he could also write himself into the history books as the youngest ever winner of the world’s biggest bike race.

Not since Henri Cornet triumphed in the second edition of the Tour in 1904 at the age of 19 years and 355 days has a teenager won cycling’s blue riband event.

Should Seixas deliver in his debut this July, he would not only beat Cornet’s record by 50 days, but he would also have won his first Tour more than two years earlier than Pogacar, whose inaugural win came on the eve of his 22nd birthday in 2020.

Can he do it? Put simply, it would be wrong for Seixas and Decathlon even to aim for a victory.

In fact, it would be very presumptuous for Decathlon to think that a rider who has yet to race the Tour can beat the two best stage racers of their generation, riders who have won nine Grand Tours between them and the previous six editions of the Tour on the bounce.

Seixas has enjoyed one-and-a-half stellar breakout seasons. Last year, he became the youngest rider to finish in the top 10 of a Monument (seventh at Il Lombardia) and won the Tour de l’Avenir.

This year, he took his first one-day win in the Faun-Ardeche Classic in between winning the Volta ao Algarve and Itzulia Basque Country - his first World Tour stage race success.

The Frenchman tamed the Mur de Huy to win on debut at La Fleche Wallonne before finishing behind Pogacar in Liege-Bastogne-Liege - 45 seconds down compared to his one-minute deficit to the Slovenian world champion in Strade Bianche back in March.

Then came the real litmus test: the first edition of the revamped Tour Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes, the habitual amuse bouche of the Tour ahead of the main course in July.

While the likes of Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike) and Red Bull duo Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz were absent, the inclusion of Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek) and UAE’s Isaac del Toro would help to gauge where Seixas was ahead of the Grande Boucle.

In the event, we didn’t learn too much beyond the shortcomings of Seixas’s Decathlon squad, the vincibility of the Frenchman, and a reminder of the brilliance of Pogacar’s deputy, Isaac del Toro.

On the day of Seixas’s unfortunate crash, Del Toro beat Ayuso on the Gran Colombier, doubling up ahead of the Spaniard at Plateau de Solaison the next day to secure the overall title.

While crashing and ultimately withdrawing one day later was hardly ideal Tour preparation for Seixas, it could have a positive effect.

First, it offered something of a get-out after his Decathlon team failed to control the breakaway that shaped the race – when Red Bull’s Luke Tuckwell went up the road in a massive move to take the yellow jersey in Stage 6. Secondly, it has tempered expectations accordingly.

Had Seixas managed to overhaul Tuckwell in the manner that Del Toro did over the final weekend, the groundswell surrounding his position of Hinault’s heir elect would have only intensified, heaping yet more pressure on the slender shoulders of the 19-year-old tyro ahead of the Tour.

As it is, we were given a timely reminder that Seixas is human after all, that he is subject to the laws of physics, can crash and hurt himself just like everyone, and can suffer at the hands of bad luck and bad decisions - both individual and collective.

On his YouTube channel, the American former Vuelta winner Chris Horner went as far as claiming that Decathlon were "big-time knuckleheads" for letting a dangerous group of 60 riders go up the road in Stage 6.

"The staff certainly need to up their ability," Horner harrumphed.

Well, the spin here is that it’s better to learn from this mistake in June rather than in July. Luke Rowe - a veteran of eight Tours and present during Sky’s winning years with Chris Froome, Geraint Thomas and Egan Bernal - will return as directeur sportif at Decathon CMA CGM for the Tour to offer Seixas his pearls of wisdom. The team has also tempered their expectations by sending a sprinter to the Tour, offering Olav Kooij his own belated debut following his move from Visma this winter.

Rather than spreading themselves too thin, the corresponding focus on the Dutch fast-man will take the focus off Seixas, for whom the team have not laid down any concrete targets beyond essentially doing his best and gleaning experience.

In the words of Dominique Serieys, general manager and CEO of Decathlon CMA CGM: "Paul Seixas will be making his Tour de France debut as part of this team, with the goal of achieving the best possible result while focusing on learning. Olav Kooij, who will also be competing in his first Tour France, will have several opportunities to showcase his speed in sprint finishes."

For his part, Seixas remains upbeat and excited - but also realistic about the challenge ahead.

"After my crash and withdrawal from the Tour [Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes], I was able to resume my training for the Tour de France almost as usual, adjusting a few sessions due to my injuries," Seixas said in a team statement.

"With five days to go before the Grand Depart, I feel ready to give it my all to complete these three weeks and achieve the best possible finish."

It’s worth remembering that Pogacar had never raced beyond 10 consecutive days when he finished third in his debut Grand Tour a week shy of his 21st birthday.

The Slovenian sensation conceded the best part of three minutes to compatriot Primoz Roglic in the 2019 Vuelta, although he had very little pressure on his shoulders on his way to securing a hat-trick of stage wins.

Just over a year later, Pogacar had won the Tour at the first attempt, wresting the yellow jersey from Roglic’s back on the penultimate day time trial up La Planche des Belles Filles.

With Pogacar’s trajectory in mind, it is not surprising that many envisaged a similar path for Seixas: an attempt at the Vuelta this year before finally making his bow at the Tour in 2027.

But such were Seixas’ performances this year - coupled with Decathlon’s fear that their prized asset might be poached by another team - that the 19-year-old was fast-tracked to the start line in Barcelona. After all, if Decathlon are going to lose their diamond asset, better get something from him before he goes.

While this means that Seixas is essentially two years ahead of Pogacar in terms of development, it could result in him not being as quick to his first Tour win as the double world champion. After all, there was no Pogacar around when Pogacar broke through.

Not once has Seixas ridden more than eight consecutive days of competitive riding; this July he will need to get through 21. As phenomenal a talent as he is, it would be inconceivable that he not only succeeds in this challenge but also becomes a realistic contender against a duo whose rivalry outdoes anything we have ever seen in the sport.

In truth, even the likes of Lipowitz, last year’s white jersey, and a distant third place behind the so-called Big Two on his debut, and his Red Bull team-mate Evenepoel – himself third in his Tour debut a year earlier – should finish higher than the Frenchman, ditto Lidl-Trek’s mercurial climber Ayuso (provided he finishes).

Rather than Seixas, it’s another debutant - Del Toro - who everyone should be watching as the most likely to break up the Pogacar-Vingegaard stranglehold.

Even riding as Pogacar’s right-hand man at UAE, the 22-year-old Mexican has the form, fitness and armoury to emerge as his team-mate’s closest challenger this July.

Unlike Seixas, he comes to his first Tour having already led - and thrown away - another, and the experience gleaned from his dramatic Giro loss to Simon Yates last year cannot be overestimated.

So, what should we expect exactly from the rider who has given the host nation good reason to dream once again? It’s hard to say. One thing is certain: his performances so far this year will mean Seixas will not be taken lightly by any of the main GC contenders. As such, he will find it tricky getting into any big moves unless/until he is well down on GC.

Short of a crash, bad mechanical or an opening-week implosion, Seixas may therefore find himself rather eclipsed by the superior strength of his rivals and their more experienced teams.

A polka dot push and a stage win – perhaps on Bastille Day at Le Lioran in the Massif Central – would represent a solid return for Seixas, especially if coupled with a top five finish in Paris. Although there’s no guarantee that Seixas will – or even should – make it to Paris.

Seixas and his Decathlon team may learn that they cannot be greedy. That stage win and the KOM jersey may only come if their man is well down in the general classification.

All this might result in a very different Paul Seixas this July: conservative, cautious, cagey and human, rather than the panache-fuelled swashbuckler we’ve already grown to love. More’s the pity.

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