Alberto Contador interview: Tadej Pogacar would have to make a major mistake to allow Jonas Vingegaard to win 2026 Tour de France crown
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Updated 30/06/2026 at 12:09 GMT+1
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Alberto Contador believes Tadej Pogacar will take some stopping at the 2026 Tour de France, which starts on Saturday, insisting the defending champion would have to make a "major mistake" for Jonas Vingegaard to reclaim the yellow jersey, given the Slovenian's current blistering form.
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The two-time Tour winner said Pogacar's insatiable appetite to pursue a record-equalling fifth victory, combined with the strength of UAE Team Emirates-XRG, makes the 27-year-old the overwhelming favourite for victory, with all stages of the Tour de France live on TNT Sports and HBO Max.
Pogacar and Vingegaard have defined La Grande Boucle in recent years, but the battle behind the favourite looks more competitive than ever.
While Pogacar is widely expected to remain the man to beat, Vingegaard will spearhead Visma-Lease a Bike's challenge, with Remco Evenepoel and Florian Lipowitz - both with Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe - adding further firepower to an intriguing GC contest.
French prodigy Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM) is the standout debutant and could emerge as the race's breakout rider, but at the sharp end Contador believes Vingegaard's best hope is to capitalise if Pogacar suffers an unusually costly error.
"I reckon that, given how Tadej is performing right now and with such a strong team around him, he'd have to make a major mistake," Contador exclusively told TNT Sports.
"The sort of mistakes that are becoming increasingly rare in cycling these days – like missing a meal or failing to stay hydrated. We're seeing a Tadej who is improving year on year.
"Vingegaard also seems to be improving, but if we analyse the potential of the UAE team and that of the Visma team, they're not on a par at the moment."
Vingegaard, who won the 2022 and 2023 editions of the Tour de France, was given a clear run by Pogacar to claim his first Giro d'Italia title earlier this year and complete the Grand Tour collection, but any fears that the defending champion arrives in Barcelona undercooked have been emphatically extinguished.
Pogacar heads into the Tour on a high after he produced an exhibition to win the Tour de Suisse by six minutes and 32 seconds earlier this month, the race's largest winning margin in 67 years.
Victory in three of the five stages acted as a message from the world champion to his rivals that he returns to France better than ever.
Asked what would need to change for Vingegaard to reverse the current trend, Contador said the Dane must produce a flawless race while hoping the Slovenian encounters rare adversity.
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"Vingegaard has to be in top form, not make any mistakes, and see if one day – because anyone can have a bad day – Tadej might slip up," Contador continued. "Ultimately, Vingegaard is a very consistent rider."
Although Pogacar has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to recover from setbacks, Contador argued there is a significant psychological difference between defending a race lead and chasing time.
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"It's not the same when you're racing to make up ground and have to attack, as it is when you're already in the lead," he explained.
"It might not seem like it, but it makes a big difference. It's not the same as having that obligation to make up time or deal with a tricky situation, as it is to just run the race as normal."
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The Spaniard, who experienced similar scenarios during his own career, said Vingegaard's consistency means even a small advantage could prove decisive.
"When Tadej has beaten him, it's been because Tadej was stronger, because Vingegaard never slipped up," Contador said.
"Vingegaard is a rider who doesn't make mistakes, at least not so far. So giving him even the slightest advantage may well give Vingegaard a much better chance of winning the Tour."
While reluctant to outline a detailed tactical blueprint without studying the route in depth, Contador suggested the race's biggest Alpine stages are where Visma-Lease a Bike are most likely to test Pogacar.
"I think the stages where Jonas is best placed to hold his own against Pogacar are the high-mountain stages," he said. "That's where, perhaps, in the Tours Vingegaard won, he caused Tadej problems."
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Alberto Contador believes it is still too early to judge where Pogacar ranks among cycling's all-time greats
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Contador highlighted Stage 15 and the race's visit to Alpe d'Huez as potentially decisive moments, adding that he expects Vingegaard's team to assess the race as it develops before committing to an all-out attack.
With the Grand Depart in Barcelona taking place this weekend, Pogacar's ideal final tune-up in Switzerland represents an important altitude block heading into the weeks ahead, where he admits his body will be pushed to the limit once more.
The prospect of a fifth yellow jersey, drawing level with cycling greats Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault and Jacques Anquetil, is at stake, but Contador stopped short of comparing the Slovenian with the sport's all-time legends.
"There's no way of knowing," he added. "We can't compare every cyclist in history with the resources we have today.
"The knowledge of training, recovery, nutrition and technology is on a completely different level now, so I think it's very difficult to answer that question."
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