Arsene Wenger's big decision: Should Arsenal drop Mesut Ozil for Bayern Munich match?

The Arsenal boss was rather candid about a player he is usually so enthusiastic to defend against accusations that he goes missing in matches.

Ozil has not scored a goal for Arsenal since December 10, in a 3-1 home win over Stoke, and he only has one assist so far in 2017. Wenger has always encouraged Ozil to score more goals and when Alexis Sanchez was first used as a false nine this season it did seem to give Ozil more space to operate in attack, leading to him scoring nine goals up until the Stoke match. But as Wenger says, he is well overdue now.

And it is not just his form in front of goal which is a problem. Ozil’s display against Hull was that of a player well short of his best. He looks inhibited and his tendency to drift in and out of games has become more pronounced. It is hard to think of a good performance he has put in since he famously moved out of the way to allow Ashley Williams to head home Everton’s winner on December 13.

If Wenger is considering axing Ozil, though, one fact which could give him pause for thought is the player’s Champions League form this season. He has five goals and four assists in 21 Premier League games, but four goals and three assists in just six in Europe. Admittedly, these matches coincided with his purple patch.

According to Jeremy Wilson at the Telegraph, Wenger is giving serious thought to dropping Ozil as he wants to prioritise keeping things tight away at the German giants.

Meanwhile, at The Independent, Miguel Delaney also says Wenger has considered making a change, even if it would require a tricky bit of balancing.

You can count the number of times Wenger has adapted his approach to suit the opposition on one hand. There are even fewer examples of the Arsenal boss actually sacrificing an attacking player in order to bolster his midfield or defence. In the 2005 FA Cup final, Arsenal adopted a 4-5-1 formation against Manchester United, with Cesc Fabregas, Patrick Vieira and Gilberto Silva in midfield and Dennis Bergkamp alone in attack – but that was forced on Wenger due to an injury to Thierry Henry.

There have also been instances where big players have been dropped – Yaya Sanogo was famously included ahead of Olivier Giroud against Bayern Munich back in February 2014 – and occasions when Arsenal have played a more reserved, counter-attacking style – a 2-0 win over Manchester City in January 2015 and a 2-0 win over Bayern, again, in October 2015 – but nothing quite of this nature.

Given Bayern will likely play all three of Xabi Alonso, Arturo Vidal and Thiago Alcantara, Arsenal may feel it wise to have three midfielders in the middle. It would be a change in approach from what we have seen this season if Francis Coquelin and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain were joined by Granit Xhaka or Mohamed Elneny. That would mean more of a 4-3-3 formation, as outlined below:

If Arsenal wanted to stick to their trusted formation, Iwobi could play centrally and drop into midfield more frequently to make it a three against Bayern. That would allow Arsenal to include a player like Danny Welbeck, whose work-rate and pace would be very useful given he could be up against Arjen Robben and Philipp Lahm on that flank:

It’s a label that has stuck to the playmaker for a number of years now, despite being a leading member of the Germany side who won the World Cup in 2014. It looks hard to stand up when you consider how brilliant he was in the 3-0 win over Chelsea earlier this season, and the fact that he scored against both Manchester United and Bayern last season.

But whether it’s the big games or not, Ozil is not currently performing to the standard required.

There are few better playmakers when Ozil is on his game; he can frequently be a joy to watch. But recent performances must be causing Wenger real alarm. Arsenal can’t afford any passengers against a team as accomplished as Bayern, and a midfield so adept at keeping and using the ball. If Ozil goes missing then Arsenal will be outnumbered in key areas and Wenger’s professed hopes of keeping things tight will be damaged.

If Arsenal do want to go to Munich and sit back and frustrate Bayern, with all the defensive discipline that requires, then it might not be a game for Ozil, even if he was at his best. Given he is currently nowhere near that, his inclusion could well be too much of a gamble. It would be very unlike Wenger to drop his most imaginative player, but it might pay off.