Manchester City have '1%' chance of avoiding early Champions League exit to Real Madrid, claims Pep Guardiola

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola has claimed his side have only a "1%" chance of overturning their first-leg deficit to Real Madrid in the Champions League play-off round. The former champions lost the first leg 3-2 at home, collapsing from 2-1 up in the final four minutes, and must win at the Bernabeu - where they have only won once - on Wednesday to avoid an early exit from the competition.

Pep Guardiola has suggested Manchester City have only a "1%" chance of beating Real Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League play-off and progressing in the competition.

City lost 3-2 in the opening leg at the Etihad last week, having been 2-1 up with just four minutes to go, before a stunning revival by the visitors completely turned the game around.

Guardiola's side must produce a similar comeback in the second leg, but they have only won once at the Bernabeu, all the way back in February 2020 in the round of 16.

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"The margin to win in Bernabeu in that position, everybody knows that, if you ask before the game the percentage to go through - I don't know, we arrive at 1% or I don't know what the minimum [is], but as as much you have a chance we will try, that's for sure," Guardiola said.

"The chance is minor because the [first-leg] result was not good - five minutes [to go], with 2-1, it would be different.

"But with 2-3, the chance [is less], but as much as you have a chance, we are going to take it, and we'll see what happens."

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Video credit: TNT Sports

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This has been one of City's most challenging seasons under Guardiola in his nine years at the club, with the Premier League title essentially out of reach and a sub-par Champions League performance landing them in the play-off round rather than automatically progressing to the last 16.

Following a 4-0 Premier League drubbing of Newcastle in their last fixture - including a hat-trick by new signing Omar Marmoush - Guardiola will hope his squad can deliver a similar result on Wednesday to keep their Champions League hopes alive.

But the Spaniard may not be able to call on star striker Erling Haaland, who scored both of City's goals including a late penalty in the first leg. He was forced off in the second half against Newcastle with what appeared to be a knock to his knee.

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"Listen, there are many, many games that we didn't play at the level we play, and at the end, we lost it," Guardiola added.

"And that was not just the three points, it's how it is affecting our minds for the next game. It happened a lot of times.

"We are going like always we have done, but this season the reality [is] we have been miles and miles away."

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