Why FIFA rule change means Turkiye, Haiti and Tunisia are knocked out early of 2026 World Cup after defeats to Paraguay, Brazil and Japan

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Turkiye had 32 shots against Paraguay in their World Cup Group D clash, but could find no way through and fell to a 1-0 defeat. Meanwhile, Haiti and Tunisia have also been eliminated from the tournament.

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But how, exactly, is that the case? At first glance, it appears Turkiye could win their final match against co-hosts USA and potentially finish third.

Three points could yet be enough for some countries to progress to the last 32, particularly with a positive goal difference.

It will not be enough for Turkiye, though, who are now guaranteed to finish bottom of their group regardless of their result against USA.

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That is because goal difference is no longer the decisive factor when two teams finish level on points in a World Cup group.

Instead, places will be decided by head-to-head records. Turkiye, having lost to both Australia and Paraguay, are unable to finish above either nation, even if they finish with a superior goal difference.

It will be galling for a country that had high hopes heading into the tournament, with many identifying them as a team to watch.

Many onlookers' expectation was that Turkiye would progress from their group, but they have fallen short despite taking a total of 62 shots in their two matches so far.

Wastefulness in front of goal has proved costly, and Australia and Paraguay will now battle it out to finish second in the group.

"I'm sad, but also very proud of my players," Turkiye boss Montella said in his post-match press conference. "They gave their all until the final whistle. Football is like that sometimes.

"I am very, very sorry. There were high expectations on behalf of our nation. Our expectations were also high.

"I am also very sorry on behalf of the TFF [Turkish Football Federation]; I know how they worked. I know how the footballers worked."

Montella also bemoaned his side's misfortune after they failed to find the net despite a plethora of chances in both defeats.

"I have been in football for 35 years; normally it happens once in 50 years, but it happened to us in two matches," he said.

"There are [62] shots in two matches! Not to mention ball possession. Fate was not on our side. I told our footballers to hold their heads up. As they sometimes say, there is nothing beyond destiny.

"I always look at the percentage of hard work and determination of our footballers. I look at their spirit on the field. All of them had incredible determination. They fought until the end in both matches.

"My support for them will be unconditional. No one held back; everyone worked and fought hard. It didn't work, unfortunately."

Turkiye play their final match of the tournament against the USA in Los Angeles on Friday morning at 03:00 UK time.

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Haiti out after defeat to Brazil

Before Turkiye's exit, Haiti became the first team to be knocked out of the World Cup with a 3-0 loss against Brazil.

The Caribbean nation, playing at their second World Cup, lost their opening game 1-0 to Scotland.

Scotland were then beaten by Morocco, and are on three points ahead of their final group match against Brazil.

Haiti could finish level on points with Scotland if they win against Morocco on Wednesday, but the aforementioned head-to-head rule means they cannot overtake Steve Clarke's team.

Even if FIFA had not changed the primary tiebreaker for countries level on points from goal difference to head-to-head, Haiti would be in a difficult position.

They have a goal difference of -4 heading into their clash against an impressive Morocco side, while Scotland's goal difference is currently 0.

And goal difference could still be important for third-placed teams: if, for example, several nations that finish third are level on three points come the end of the group stage, those with the worse goal difference will be eliminated.

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Tunisia's miserable World Cup

The latest team to exit the tournament are Tunisia, whose inability to progress was confirmed by a 4-0 defeat to Japan.

The loss concluded a tumultuous week in which a 5-1 opening game loss to Sweden saw manager Sabri Lamouchi sacked and replaced by ex-Saudi Arabia boss Herve Renard.

But it took less than four minutes for Tunisia to go behind against Japan, as Crystal Palace's Daichi Kamada prodded home from close range.

"It is not the performance we were hoping for," Renard said. "The score of this second match is heavy, but it reflects the difference between the two teams tonight.

"Even if we are eliminated, we ⁠still have a third game to play. We are in a World Cup, and we must remain focused. It ⁠is important to get ready to fight for this third game against the Netherlands.

"It’s ⁠never easy after two losses in two games, but we must ⁠take our responsibilities to be professionals to the very end."

Next up for Tunisia is a game against group leaders the Netherlands, where even a win wouldn't be enough for Renard's side to make it to the next round.

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