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Australian Open: Can Aryna Sabalenka be stopped as title charge continues on 'classic night of tennis'?

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The Australian Open semi-finals are upon us, with Aryna Sabalenka, Elina Svitolina, Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina comprising a blockbuster Thursday evening. Any way you look, tennis history can be made, but expert Tim Henman feels Sabalenka has earned the right to be favourite for the title. "She's played the best tennis in the whole tournament, [in the] men's and women's draws," he said.

Sinner, Musetti and Pegula star in best shots from Day 11 of Australian Open

Video credit: TNT Sports

"That has the potential to be a classic night of tennis," claimed TNT Sports expert Laura Robson, looking ahead to Thursday's bumper evening session of women's Australian Open semi-finals.

Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina will open the evening session - with coverage beginning at 7:30am UK time on TNT Sports and discovery+ - before Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina face off, with the slate for Saturday's final set to be finalised.

The business end of the women's draw is brimming with storylines: will Sabalenka claim her third Australian title in four years? Could Svitolina or Pegula - both at 31 - pick up their maiden major titles? Might Rybakina stun the field quite like she did at the ATP Finals in November?

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What is certain, though, is that the Daphne Akhurst Memorial Cup will find a new mantle to sit upon.

Madison Keys, who stunned Sabalenka in a dramatic final 12 months ago, relinquished her crowd in defeat to her compatriot and friend, Pegula.

TNT Sports expert Tim Henman feels Sabalenka is the player who has so far put her best foot forward in order to ensure she leaves Melbourne Park with a fifth Grand Slam title.

Highlights: Dominant Sabalenka brushes aside Jovic to storm into semi-finals

Video credit: TNT Sports

"I think she's been absolutely outstanding," Henman said. "I think she's played the best tennis in the whole tournament, [in the] men's and women's draws, she's just been absolutely amazing."

Svitolina, though, represents a sturdy challenger who may be able to utilise the expected chilly - thus slower - conditions to counter-punch the world No. 1, and potentially cause a shock just as she did when routinely dismissing third seed Coco Gauff in the quarter-finals, and indeed No. 8 seed Mirra Andreeva before that.

"Svitolina has the attitude and experience to not be overawed by it," Henman continued. "She's playing brilliantly, and that quarter-final performance, the way she went out against Coco Gauff and just dropped three games, she comes in absolutely full of confidence.

"We talked about Sabalenka dealing with the pressure of being the No. 1, having that target on her back, she seems to thrive in that environment. But I think Svitolina is going to come out and go for broke - fight fire with fire."

Jamie Murray, meanwhile, pinpointed a potential advantage Svitolina holds over Sabalenka heading into Thursday evening's action.

"She's played her last two matches at night, so she's used to the conditions," he said in the TNT Sports studio.

Watch stunning upset as Svitolina downs Gauff in under an hour to reach semis

Video credit: TNT Sports

"It's a similar match-up, aggressive baseliner against traditional counter-puncher, and it's the same thing - maybe as it's colder, it gives Sabalenka more time to line up her shots.

"But it could be harder for her to get the ball through the court, [and Svitolina can] get Sabalenka in positions she doesn't want to play in. That's going to be the challenge."

'Fascinating' semi-final line-up

Quite remarkably, each of the four semi-finalists in the women's draw have yet to drop a set in their five matches won.

That infallibility will generate a feeling of belief, Henman feels.

"Absolutely. All four players go onto the court with the belief they can come up with a victory," he said. "It's going to be fascinating to see how they deal with the challenges that the opponent brings to the court."

Pegula has sustained a period in the top 10 for some time now, but struggled to forge a deep run in the first three majors of the 2025 season, following her run to the US Open final at the end of her 2024 campaign.

Pegula says off-season work 'paying off' as she takes 'risks' to beat big-hitters

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But, once again in her home Slam, she excelled - making it to the semi-finals last year, and has now reached the last four in back-to-back majors for the first time in her career.

Standing in her way of a second Grand Slam final appearance is 2022 Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, who reached the final in Melbourne three years ago.

The No. 5 seed blew away Iga Swiatek in the quarter-finals, serving powerfully, and utilising her immense baseline power to pin back the six-time major champion at every opportunity.

Murray says the evening conditions could help Pegula to slow down Rybakina's explosive game, but caveats: "It potentially doesn't help her in the sense it's harder for her to get her ball going through the court. Maybe Rybakina has got the power to still hit through the conditions."

Rybakina has continued her stunning season-ending form which saw her beat Sabalenka to the ATP Finals title, and - ominously for Pegula - has won each of her last eight matches against top 10 opponents.

Highlights: Rybakina stuns second seed Swiatek in straight sets to reach last four

Video credit: TNT Sports

"She's definitely got the best serve in the women's game," Henman said. "She served the most aces last year, and that was such an important factor against Swiatek.

"Baseline to baseline, that's going to be difficult, but if you're getting those free points on your serve, it gives you that little bit of help to hold your serve, and once she got that first set under her belt against Swiatek, she went from strength-to-strength."

Any way you look, there is tennis history to be made. And luckily for UK viewers, ludicrous alarm clocks need not be set in order to catch the action!

Stream every match of the 2026 Australian Open live and on-demand on discovery+

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