Ballon d'Or 2026 Power Rankings: Could England captain Harry Kane or Manchester United star Bruno Fernandes really win it?
Updated 25/03/2026 at 13:02 GMT
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Could England captain Harry Kane really win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? What about Bruno Fernandes, even though Manchester United aren't playing in the Champions League? And is there a case still to be made for Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo? The Ballon d'Or in a World Cup year can always throw up some surprises and that is certainly the case in the first edition of our power rankings.
Highlights: Kane hits 50th CL goal as Bayern thump Atalanta again
Video credit: TNT Sports
Love it or hate it, you can never run from it. It is time to talk about the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or and the possible winners.
A FIFA World Cup year is always a tough one. In the 21st century, we have had six World Cups. Of those, a player from the winning country has won the Ballon d'Or exactly half the time - Ronaldo in 2002, Fabio Cannavaro in 2006 and Lionel Messi in 2023.
In 2010 and 2014, Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo respectively won the award, whilst in 2018 Luka Modric took it - none of those players won the World Cup in those years.
So it is worth stressing that exceptional club performance, notably playing a starring role in helping a team win the UEFA Champions League, can override World Cup performances. In 2010, Argentina were knocked out of the World Cup in the quarter-finals, whilst in 2014, Portugal didn't even get out of their group.
So when compiling our first power rankings of 2026, we have tried to weigh Champions League and World Cup as best we can, albeit this is not a perfect science.
A good example of a player who is unlikely to feature at all in the rankings is Erling Haaland. Manchester City are now out of the Champions League and, realistically, Norway cannot be expected to win the World Cup.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our current top 10.
10 - Lionel Messi (Inter Miami and Argentina) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr and Portugal)
Let's be clear, nothing that either Messi or Ronaldo do for their clubs between now and the summer will have any bearing at all on the Ballon d'Or - this is a pure World Cup angle.
If either Argentina or Portugal win the World Cup, you can bet your mortgage that Messi and Ronaldo will win the award for one last time. Yes, they will need to play a role, but even then, it might not need to be a starring role.
Heck, even if they get to the final and lose, you can see a world where one of them is given the award, as voters realise it is the last time they will be able to win it.
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'Expect something extraordinary' - Messi holds high expectations for the 2026 World Cup
Video credit: SNTV
9 - Vitinha (PSG and Portugal)
PSG are in a tricky place at the moment. They are in a surprise title fight with Lens in Ligue 1 and they have not been truly exceptional in Europe, yet.
With Ousmane Dembele dealing with injuries for most of the season and Bradley Barcola not fully filling that gap, the obvious pick from PSG is midfield metronome Vitinha. His PR hype-train has died down after last season, but a strong end to the campaign, along with a good World Cup showing with Portugal, could propel him higher.
Fun fact about Vitinha: he has completed 1,189 passes in the Champions League this season. The next highest is Aleix Garcia, with 880!
8 - Michael Olise (Bayern Munich and France)
There is a pretty good argument to be had that Michael Olise should actually be even higher on this list, maybe top five or even sneaking the top three. The biggest problem for Olise is not on the pitch, it is off it.
Olise is a quiet, reserved individual and for most aspects of life, that is a good thing. For Ballon d'Or awards, that is less good. He simply will not get the same kind of campaigning either from the Bundesliga crowd or from the French crowd because of other players on this list. For Olise, it really feels as if he will need to win one of the Champions League or World Cup (maybe both) and play a starring role.
And that is a real shame as he has truly been tremendous this season. Across the Bundesliga and Champions League he has 24 assists. The second highest is actually our next player, who does not even play in the Champions League and has eight fewer assists...
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'Top, top quality!' - Olise scores another stunner as Bayern rack up the score against Atalanta
Video credit: TNT Sports
7 - Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United and Portugal)
OK, let's talk about it. Manchester United are not in the Champions League. Can a player who is not playing in the Champions League and - spoiler alert - will not win their domestic league, win the Ballon d'Or? Well, we think Bruno Fernandes has a case.
At the time of writing, Fernandes has created 101 chances in the Premier League. The next highest is Declan Rice (watch out for him in a bit) with 58. He has exactly double the amount of assists as the next highest player in the Premier League; the Portugal talisman has 16 compared to Rayan Cherki's eight.
And keep an eye on his assists between now and the end of the season. He is just five away from breaking the Premier League's all-time record for assists in a single season. Thierry Henry set the 20-assist record in his astonishing 2003/04 season before Kevin De Bruyne equalled it in 2019/20. If Fernandes can break it, that is also worthy of consideration.
Secondly, as we've mentioned before, Portugal have a real shot at winning the World Cup, and if they do, you would expect Fernandes to play a starring role. If that is the case, and he does break the Premier League assist record, then why would he not win?
Former England midfielder Owen Hargreaves is on the Fernandes hype train too: "I think right now he’s the best player in the Premier League, just in terms of creation and assists."
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'Special' Fernandes 'arguably the best player in league' - Hargreaves
Video credit: TNT Sports
6 - Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid and Brazil)
If we had done this at the start of the year, there is a pretty good chance that Vinicius Junior wouldn't have been on this list. After a hot start, Vinicius went over three months without scoring in all competitions with Real Madrid in turmoil.
All is not fixed in the Spanish capital, but there are signs of recovery under Alvaro Arbeloa and Vinicius has been key to that. Since the start of February, he has scored 10 goals in 11 games in all competitions and helped propel Madrid past Manchester City in the Champions League.
This is a bit of a projection because, despite the uptick in form, you cannot argue that Vinicius has put together a season that is Ballon d'Or-worthy - but it could be coming. If Vinicius can play a role in taking Madrid and Brazil to glory over the next few months, then he will shoot up this list.
5 - Declan Rice (Arsenal and England)
How can it be possible that the sole Arsenal representative feels simultaneously too high and too low on this list? Arsenal are a weird team, without a standout candidate when it comes to these rankings, despite quite clearly being an excellent side and possibly the best in Europe.
We have gone for Declan Rice because of the all-round game he brings to the team. He will also have a pretty good shout for being the player of the year in England and also has a great chance of making some noise for England in the summer as a key cog in Thomas Tuchel's midfield.
Here's former Liverpool captain and England midfielder Steven Gerrard on Rice recently on TNT Sports:
"He's going from strength to strength, I think he's one of the best in the world. I think he has become one of the best in the world. I think it was a fantastic move for him. I wish we [Liverpool] signed him, actually."
High praise indeed and difficult to argue with.
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‘Wished Liverpool had signed him’ – Gerrard says Rice ‘one of the best in world’
Video credit: TNT Sports
4 - Raphinha (Barcelona and Brazil)
In many ways, Raphinha is similar to Olise, a worthy candidate but not the biggest star for either club or country. So given Raphinha has a) missed time, and b) has worse stats than Olise, why is he higher on our rankings?
There are two reasons here. The first is some of the momentum from last year's awards. 2025 felt like the year the wider footballing public really took notice of just how good Raphinha is and how important the role he plays for Barcelona is. This is something that his team-mates and manager talk about regularly, but it took the wider consensus longer to catch on.
The other element is the popularity of Barcelona. We've discussed this multiple times but the Ballon d'Or is as much a popularity contest as it is about footballing performance, and ultimately Raphinha and Barcelona are a more attractive proposition to voters than Olise and Bayern. Throw in Raphinha's nationality, and the importance he has for his national team, and it is easier to see how he vaults up the list over the next few months than it is for Olise.
3 - Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid and France)
We are on to the podium! The big question here for Kylian Mbappe is his health. Mbappe has already missed multiple games in 2026 due to a persistent knee injury, which has to be a concern for both Madrid and France as we reach the business end of the season.
However, if Mbappe can stay fit, then he could be on course to win his first Ballon d'Or. He already has 36 goals across La Liga and the Champions League and, of course, has already had starring roles at previous World Cups and will play a key role for France as they look to win back their crown from 2018.
Mbappe is arguably one of the two or three most popular players in the world and, despite some struggles building a cohesive attack containing him, Vinicius and Jude Bellingham, what he does on the pitch speaks for itself. With everything he has going for him, it feels as if voters will struggle to look past him (and the next player on our list) in the upcoming years.
It feels inevitable that he will win at least one Ballon d'Or. Could it be this year?
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Mbappe finishes 'absolutely delicious' Real move for brace
Video credit: TNT Sports
2 - Lamine Yamal (Barcelona and Spain)
If it is inevitable that Mbappe will win at least one Ballon d'Or in his career, how many will Lamine Yamal win? Like Mbappe, Yamal has struggled with fitness at times this season, but in 2026 he has taken his game to another level, and he has a good argument for being the best player in the world right now.
Yamal sits top of La Liga's assist charts with nine and third in the goalscoring ranks with 14, and whilst he is slightly further down the Champions League standings - five goals and four assists - he is still producing memorable moment when he is on the pitch.
And it is those moments that go viral across social media that might push Yamal clear from the rest of the pack. There are few players in the world right now who have more people tuning in specifically to watch them than Yamal; that counts for something.
Plus consider what he did for Spain at the 2024 Euros and the fact that his running mate, Nico Williams, has struggled with injury all season. It's possible that more will be asked of Yamal by Spain in the summer and that could pay-off big time for him when it comes to the Ballon d'Or.
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Highlights: Raphinha, Yamal dazzle as Barca blow Newcastle away
Video credit: TNT Sports
1 - Harry Kane (Bayern Munich and England)
But despite the excellent cases of Yamal, Mbappe and others, we have still plumped for England captain Harry Kane at this stage. Remember we said that Mbappe has 36 goals across La Liga and the Champions League this season? Kane has 41.
Not only could Kane break Robert Lewandowski's scoring record for a single Bundesliga season, he could help Bayern to their first Champions League title since 2020. It already feels like the season where Kane cements his legacy as one of the greatest strikers of his generation and that isn't even considering what he might do with his national team.
England are a flawed team but they are very much one of the contenders for the World Cup. If Kane wins the Golden Boot and can take England to the final, or maybe even win it, it will be impossible to look past Kane.
This could well change as we go further in the Champions League, but right now Kane is the man to beat.
Vote: Who will win the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or?
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