Bad omen? The worrying trend for Arsenal after final international breaks under Mikel Arteta as Premier League title race with Manchester City hots up
Updated 02/04/2026 at 17:07 GMT+1
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Can Arsenal bounce back from their Carabao Cup final disappointment when club football returns this weekend? The Gunners saw their Quadruple bid end at the hands of Manchester City last month but could still end the season with silverware. A lot will depend on how Arsenal perform after the international break, and history shows that they will not make it easy for themselves or their fanbase.
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How will Arsenal respond when club football returns after the international break?
The Gunners suffered a damaging defeat to rivals Manchester City in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley before international football took centre stage.
The result ended their dreams of a historic Quadruple, but their season could still end on a real high with the Premier League, UEFA Champions League and Emirates FA Cup up for grabs.
Arsenal's next three matches could set the tone for the remainder of the season, and you can watch two of those games live on TNT Sports and HBO Max.
But how do Arsenal fare after the final international break of the campaign during Mikel Arteta's tenure at the club?
With the help of our friends at Opta, TNT Sports digs into the data, which shows a very worrying trend for the Gunners heading into the business end of the season.
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The first hurdle for the Gunners will be a trip to Championship side Southampton in the quarter-finals of the FA Cup on Saturday night.
You can follow all the action from that cup tie on the south coast live on TNT Sports and HBO Max.
Although Arsenal head into the match as heavy favourites, it won't be an easy task as the Saints have not lost a game in all competitions since January.
Arteta's men will then travel to Portugal to face Sporting CP in the first leg of their Champions League quarter-final three days later.
Once again, the Gunners are tipped to overcome the Portuguese outfit and book their spot in the semi-finals of the competition for the second season in a row.
But Sporting have shown a steely resilience in the UEFA Champions League this season and produced a stunning turnaround to dump out Bodo/Glimt in the last 16.
Arsenal finally return to Premier League action when they host Bournemouth at the Emirates Stadium on April 11, which is also live on TNT Sports and HBO Max.
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The league leaders should not be fooled by Bournemouth's table position, because although they currently sit in 13th place, the Cherries have only lost seven league matches this season.
Arsenal must find a way to navigate these three fixtures if they want to get their campaign up and running again, but what does history tell us about their form after the final international break?
| Season | First 3 results after break | Competitions |
| 2020-21 | Loss, Draw, Win | Premier League, Europa League |
| 2021-22 | Loss, Loss, Loss | Premier League |
| 2022-23 | Win, Draw, Draw | Premier League |
| 2023-24 | Draw, Win, Win | Premier League |
| 2024-25 | Win, Draw, Win | Premier League, Champions League |
The table above shows that it has often been a struggle for the Gunners to find their feet after the March international breaks.
Arsenal fans won't want a repeat of the 2021-22 season where three consecutive defeats to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton ultimately cost them a top-four spot.
However, they can find solace in the fact that the Gunners have improved their form since that season and have failed to taste defeat in the following matches after the final international break of the season.
But this table should not fill Arsenal with too much confidence and the reason for this is simple: Manchester City.
Here is their record after the March international break in the same time frame:
| Season | First 3 results after break | Competitions |
| 2020-21 | Win, Win, Loss | Premier League, Champions League |
| 2021-22 | Win, Win, Draw | Premier League, Champions League |
| 2022-23 | Win, Win, Win | Premier League, Champions League |
| 2023-24 | Draw, Win, Win | Premier League |
| 2024-25 | Win, Win, Draw | Premier League |
Pep Guardiola's team do not flinch when club football returns after the last international break of the season.
However, this stellar record will be tested this season as Manchester City return with an FA Cup quarter-final tie against Liverpool, followed by Premier League meetings with Chelsea and Arsenal.
As we start to dig deeper into the numbers, a trend does appear for Arsenal, as shown below:
| Season | Games | Expected Goals | Win rate |
| 2020-21 (Pre-break) | 45 | 67.6 | 48.9% |
| 2020-21 (Post-break) | 13 | 17.7 | 53.8% |
| 2021-22 (Pre-break) | 35 | 59.3 | 60.0% |
| 2021-22 (Post-break) | 10 | 17.5 | 50.0% |
| 2022-23 (Pre-break) | 39 | 74.5 | 71.8% |
| 2022-23 (Post-break) | 10 | 17.91 | 40.0% |
| 2023-24 (Pre-break) | 40 | 74.3 | 65.0% |
| 2023-24 (Post-break) | 12 | 21.3 | 66.7% |
| 2024-25 (Pre-break) | 45 | 78.6 | 57.8% |
| 2024-25 (Post-break) | 13 | 24.1 | 46.2% |
Information provided by Opta
In three out of the last five seasons, Arsenal have a worse winning percentage in all competitions following the last international break of the season compared to before.
It shouldn't come as a surprise to see a lower "expected goals" figure based on the fewer number of games played, but it is concerning that the Gunners struggle to replicate their early season form towards the end of the campaign.
When looking at City's numbers, the results are fairly similar:
| Season | Games | Expected Goals | Win rate |
| 2020-21 (Pre-break) | 46 | 87.6 | 80.4% |
| 2020-21 (Post-break) | 15 | 22.01 | 66.7% |
| 2021-22 (Pre-break) | 44 | 105.4 | 72.7% |
| 2021-22 (Post-break) | 14 | 30.2 | 64.3% |
| 2022-23 (Pre-break) | 43 | 93.7 | 69.8% |
| 2022-23 (Post-break) | 18 | 34.14 | 77.8% |
| 2023-24 (Pre-break) | 45 | 95.0 | 73.3% |
| 2023-24 (Post-break) | 14 | 30.2 | 71.4% |
| 2024-25 (Pre-break) | 45 | 90.5 | 46.7% |
| 2024-25 (Post-break) | 16 | 37.8 | 75.0% |
Information provided by Opta
City have also performed better before the March international break in the recent past.
Whether it is fatigue or players returning from injury, the international matches appear to take their toll and the team who manages to overcome this hurdle is the most likely to pick up silverware in May.
The table below shows just why Arsenal should be more concerned, especially as the title race heats up in the last two months.
| Arsenal | Points per game | Man City | Points per game |
| 2020-21 (Pre-break) | 1.45 | 2020-21 (Pre-break) | 2.37 |
| 2020-21 (Post-break) | 2.11 | 2020-21 (Post-break) | 1.88 |
| 2021-22 (Pre-break) | 1.93 | 2021-22 (Pre-break) | 2.41 |
| 2021-22 (Post-break) | 1.50 | 2021-22 (Post-break) | 2.56 |
| 2022-23 (Pre-break) | 2.46 | 2022-23 (Pre-break) | 2.26 |
| 2022-23 (Post-break) | 1.50 | 2022-23 (Post-break) | 2.55 |
| 2023-24 (Pre-break) | 2.29 | 2023-24 (Pre-break) | 2.25 |
| 2023-24 (Post-break) | 2.50 | 2023-24 (Post-break) | 2.80 |
| 2024-25 (Pre-break) | 2.00 | 2024-25 (Pre-break) | 1.66 |
| 2024-25 (Post-break) | 1.78 | 2024-25 (Post-break) | 2.56 |
Information provided by Opta
Arsenal have only out-performed City once in the last five seasons after the final international break.
The numbers from the 2022-23 and 2023-24 campaigns will sting even more for the Gunners as they watched City storm past them and clinch the Premier League title.
City managed to achieve a better "points per game ratio" in the league last season compared to Arsenal, even though they finished the campaign without a major trophy for the first time since 2017, and ended the term in third position.
Arsenal and Arteta must find a way to finish the season well to fend off the challenge of Guardiola and his group of serial winners.
Although the Gunners appear to be in the driving seat - especially in the league - the numbers show that a drop-off in performance in the last few months is likely, and if that happens, Guardiola and his team will be ready to pounce.
Stream the Premier League, men’s and women’s FA Cup, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, UEFA Conference League and more live on TNT Sports and HBO Max
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