Spain new favourites for 2026 FIFA World Cup - but supercomputer predicts tight semi-final between England and Argentina

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And so, there were three. After a gripping month of action in North America, the 2026 FIFA World Cup is approaching its conclusion, with Spain into Sunday’s final and awaiting the winner of England’s semi-final against Argentina.

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France had been the clear favourites to lift the World Cup heading into the semi-finals, according to our friends at Opta and their supercomputer, with a 34% chance of being crowned champions; 11 percentage points more than the second-favourites Spain.

But it was the defending European champions who came through Tuesday’s last-four contest in ruthless fashion, dispatching France with a clinical and dominant 2-0 victory in Dallas thanks to a fifth goal of the tournament from Mikel Oyarzabal and a second from Pedro Porro.

Didier Deschamps’s side had been far better than anything that came before them in their run to the semi-finals, but until a pair of Ousmane Dembele efforts in stoppage-time, they managed just one shot on goal during Tuesday’s game.

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Spain, looking to add to their solitary World Cup title from 2010, can now put their feet up and enjoy Wednesday’s viewing as England and Argentina renew old rivalries in Atlanta.

England reached the last four after coming from behind against Norway in the heat of Miami thanks to Jude Bellingham's brace, while Argentina eventually claimed a 3-1 win against the 10 men of Switzerland after being taken to extra-time.

The semi-final line-up was perhaps not a surprise, given that, before the tournament began, the supercomputer gave the four teams the best chances of going home as champions.

It was predicted that Spain would lift the trophy in North America with France installed as the second favourite, England third and Argentina fourth, before France became front-runners during the tournament thanks to their dominant performances.

Unsurprisingly, Spain are the new favourites to take home the trophy after booking their place in the final, but the supercomputer appears to be backing them to win the final, regardless of their opponent, with Luis de la Fuente’s side currently given a 56.15% chance of glory.

Opta supercomputer predictions ahead of England's World Cup semi-final against Argentina

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The supercomputer is predicting that Spain’s opponents will be England, giving Thomas Tuchel’s side the edge in Wednesday’s semi-final with a 52.53% chance of beating Argentina.

Therefore, England are currently second favourites to win the tournament, with a 23.38% chance of ending their 60 years of hurt, while Argentina have been given a 20.47% chance of winning successive World Cups.

Who will be crowned champions come Sunday? Whatever the outcome, the supercomputer suggests we are in for a thrilling last two matches in the week to come.

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