2026 FIFA World Cup winner tipped by supercomputer - but two teams neck and neck to meet in final

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The 2026 World Cup is grinding towards its inevitable and irresistible conclusion in North America. Our friends at Opta have once again clicked refresh on their supercomputer tab and delivered their odds on which teams will reach the final. And boy, there are some surprises in store.

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The latest slew of games has now been completed and the quarter-finals are soon upon us.

On Thursday, France take on Morocco, then Friday sees Spain meet Belgium. On the other side of the bracket, Norway face England and Argentina play Switzerland as those two sides became the last teams to qualify for the final eight on Tuesday.

Before the tournament began, the supercomputer had predicted that Spain would lift the trophy in North America with France installed as the second favourite.

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Third spot was given to England, with an 11.2% chance of winning their first World Cup since 1996.

Argentina were ranked in fourth spot overall and narrow wins over Cabo Verde and then Egypt may suggest that they are not the force they were in Qatar in 2022.

With plenty of games behind us and the highest stakes matches still to come in the days ahead, Opta’s supercomputer has been fired into top gear once again and we have a new set of predictions based on all the data amassed so far.

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Let’s get down to it.

The favourites, unsurprisingly, are France. They are seen as having a 73.9% chance of reaching the semi-finals. As for the odds of reaching the final, they stand at 44.3%, and to win it outright, they are given the nod at 27.3%, the highest of the remaining sides in the hat.

Onto Spain. They are rated at 69.7% to reach the semis, 36.4% to reach the final but at 21.3% to win the whole thing.

Interestingly, Argentina have now been bumped up to third place in the list of favourites.

They are at 69.1% to reach the last four, but 36.4% to get to the final. They are at 17.3% to win the whole thing. That means the supercomputer has cranked and whirred to predict that both Spain and Argentina have the same odds of getting to the showpiece event.

Supercomputer predictions
Image credit: Opta

Next up, England. They are at a healthy 62.4% to reach the semis. They have a 35% chance of getting to the final and a 16.5% rating to bring football home.

The remaining four of Norway (6.6% to win), Switzerland (3.8%), Morocco (3.7%) and Belgium (3.6%) are given little chance of succeeding.

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