Neil Hodgson column: The new MotoGP season starts now, but can Francesco Bagnaia become Marc Marquez's main rival in 2026?

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Marc Marquez had an outstanding 2025, but now the world champion will have to look ahead. His team-mate Francesco Bagnaia’s double win at Grand Prix Japan last week suggests that next season’s title is already being contested.

It is almost like you can draw a line now after Japan. This season’s championship is over. Marc won it, but the mental side of racing is always huge, as I always say. These next races matter.

We have five races left, which is a lot. The fact that we have got some overseas, some in Europe, really makes this last mini-championship vital. Marc will not want Pecco to beat him again, let alone score more points over those five races, so a rivalry which has almost laid dormant this year could burst into life.

It really makes the championship juicy despite the title being won. If you see what has happened on Friday, it has been difficult for the factory Ducati boys in practice, so it has been a strange old day. But it is almost like the 2026 season starts now.

Marc crashed twice on Friday in practice, and while he was not the only rider to go into the gravel, I think this is a track that really does not suit him.

He has never done well here, but the grip is inconsistent, and Marc tends to push hard even when the bike is moving underneath him. He is more at risk of finding the edge and overstepping. That is a problem in Indonesia, because when you crash, you can crash fast and hard.

For Marc, I think he needs to reassess. He needs to focus on surviving this weekend. If he can snatch a podium and keep himself safe, he should be satisfied. That tees him up for the last four rounds, which are more like your classic races and he can dominate again. He can only do that if he does not get injured here.

Because of that risk, I am going to rule Marc out, which I never normally do. I am not feeling it at all for Marc this weekend, so I think there is a really good opportunity for Marco Bezzecchi to win again. He looks fantastic. Pedro Acosta looks really impressive as well. They are the two standout riders this weekend.

I think if Marc can pick up the pieces, I will be stunned. I could definitely be proven wrong, but I would be shocked if Marc could steal a victory here. I think with the two crashes already, unless they make big changes overnight and transform things, it is not going to happen. We should be looking elsewhere for this weekend’s winners, but I am not sure if it is going to be Bagnaia either.

I think we need to know if there has been a cure for Pecco with those changes, or was it a one-off in Japan? It is difficult to answer, but by now, you would feel that Ducati need to know what direction they need to go in for 2026. They will know what they need to work on. Whether the changes made last weekend are enough for Bagnaia here, we are going to have to wait and see. Qualifying might give us a better idea after he struggled on Friday.

For all the talk of the changes coming for next season, I am not worried for Ducati. I think the other teams have had their concessions. They have had the testing, the tyres, more wildcards. Ducati have not had that, so I think that they have actually been holding something back, and they should be able to take the biggest leap forward. To me, they’re still the favourites next season and will dominate. When the overhaul in rules takes place in 2027, I think that is when things will be up for grabs once again.

Of course, Marquez, and potentially Bagnaia, will be amongst the favourites next year, but Bezzecchi at Aprilia, in his second season, could do well. It takes a year for your inputs and requests to filter through into the manufacturing side, so you reap the benefits in the second year. That is why every rider wants at least two years on their contract when they change manufacturers. It can be a struggle in your first year. Bezzecchi has flourished in the second half of this season, so I will put him as one of the favourites.

As for Jorge Martin, the key question is if he is fit. He has lost a full season’s development, which has favoured Bezzecchi. He needs a good end to this year, so let’s hope he can ride in Malaysia and finish strong in Europe and test well. What a difference a year makes in racing. That is the tough nature of motorcycle racing, and now he has got a fight for his future.

I think there is nowhere for him to go now, because all the seats are sorted for next year. What could happen is if he starts poorly next year, he will be looking where to go next with his management. Negotiations will start early if things are not looking good, and I suspect he will want to get back on a Ducati next season.

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