Marc Marquez is still 'groggy' and Grand Prix Thailand is the time to strike for his MotoGP title rivals - Neil Hodgson Column

React to this story

In his exclusive TNT Sports column, Neil Hodgson predicts who will be able to challenge Ducati's Marc Marquez for the first win of the season at Grand Prix Thailand this weekend. He names five of the best who could make a play for the win, as well as another wildcard option for the season-opening weekend in Thailand, live on TNT Sports and discovery+.

'If you do that, you'll face plant' - Razgatlioglu's biggest challenge in MotoGP

Video credit: TNT Sports

Neil Hodgson is providing expert insight to TNT Sports throughout the MotoGP season.

In his second column of the season, he predicts who will challenge Marc Marquez for the first race of the 2026 MotoGP world championship.

**************

Grand Prix Thailand

From minnows to true engineering force: Why Aprilia are ready to test Ducati dominance

01/03/2026 at 13:26

With the first race weekend of the new season upon us in Thailand, I’ve been wondering what we can expect from Marc Marquez in 2026, and how the pack is shaping up for the campaign opener. I think that for those looking to topple the Spaniard, he is potentially vulnerable.

During pre-season testing - and there hasn’t been much - Marquez has not been phenomenal. Of course, given it’s Marquez, he hasn’t been bad, and he still starts the weekend and the season as the clear favourite on his Ducati.

But what stands out is that shoulder issue from last season, the injury that required surgery and saw him miss the last five races of the season. That problem is still ongoing, it’s not done and dusted as we’d all hoped. I’m surprised, because I genuinely thought that by the start of the season he would be 100% fit. He’s not, and that definitely gives his rivals an opportunity to steal a march.

Now, if he was anyone else, if he was just a regular human being, I’d think that maybe Marc would be a little concerned by his shoulder, but as far as I can tell, he produces more adrenaline than anyone on the planet. Once he gets to the starting line and the lights go out, he’ll turn into the Marc Marquez machine. I don’t think he worries about getting injured, or life after racing, not yet. I think he just thinks about the next corner, and then the one after that.

Don’t get me wrong, we’re nearer the end of his career than the start of it, but he remains a monster on the track.

2025 world champion Marc Marquez wins MotoGP award

Video credit: TNT Sports

Five riders who can win - and one wildcard

Looking at the track this weekend, it’s a pretty basic circuit, but it offers excitement. There aren’t too many corners in the first third of the track. It’s simple: three corners and two very long straights.

What it does have, though, is a fantastic final corner, one that is really tricky for the riders and fantastic TV. It’s a downhill, off-camber, really tight corner. It has a first-gear hairpin, really good for passing. There’s always drama there in the race. When you’re racing, you have to give it a go. You need to throw it forward down the inside, and hope you can make it stick.

One potential problem that is thrown up is the testing beforehand. Everyone gets a chance to tweak their set-ups and puts down good times. You think you’ll have the best race ever, and then - if we look to last year - there aren’t a lot of passes. That makes qualifying really important.

Despite the injury I mentioned, I still back Marquez as the favourite, but he’s a bit like a boxing champion right now: one who got knocked down, and now he’s back on his feet - but he’s still groggy. This is the time to strike a knockout blow if you’re looking to beat him this weekend, and to stand a chance of landing the world title. He’s had a load of crashes in the test, so he’s not at his best right now.

For Thailand, I’m looking to the Marquez brothers, Pecco Bagnaia, and Marco Bezzecchi as his main challengers, but the wildcard for me is Ai Ogura, who went really well last year as a rookie. He looked good in the test, and set a really good pace.

Last season wasn't good enough from Bagnaia

I mentioned Bagnaia as a potential challenger, and that goes for the title as well as the race this weekend.

I also think that next season he’ll be with Aprilia, which is a huge opportunity. Having the security of a two-year contract will help him a lot.

I’m expecting a lot more from Pecco this season, and he should be in the top three. Top five last year was unbelievable, and not in a good way at all.

Stream every race of the 2025 MotoGP season live on TNT Sports and discovery+

Grand Prix Thailand

Beginning of the end? Hodgson on title race after Bezzecchi wins opening race

01/03/2026 at 11:16

Grand Prix Thailand

Marquez penalty decision 'unfair' - Tardozzi

28/02/2026 at 14:41