Can Flavio Cobolli beat Alexander Zverev in French Open final? John McEnroe predicts outcome of men's showdown

The Italian, labelled a "heavy underdog", was the beneficiary of compatriot Matteo Arnaldi's shock withdrawal from the pair's scheduled semi-final on Friday.

Zverev, meanwhile, was put through his paces by 20-year-old Jakub Mensik on Court Philippe-Chatrier, eventually reaching his fourth Grand Slam final after three hours of play.

The German is no stranger to Sunday's showpiece, having succumbed to a thrilling Carlos Alcaraz comeback in Paris two years ago.

But Cobolli has still never played a semi-final in a major, his previous best run seeing him reach the final eight of Wimbledon in 2025.

"I would give him [Cobolli] a one in three chance. I think a 30% chance. I mean, he's a heavy underdog," said McEnroe.

"I think he's super talented. He's a great athlete. He'll be fresh, he'll be nervous, but so will Zverev, because this is it. We're all saying this could open the floodgates for him. If he wins this, he might all of a sudden be more confident playing the guys he's had trouble beating. He might believe in himself more.

"So you've got to give him [Cobolli] at least a puncher's chance, a little bit better than that."

The 24-year-old has also never reached the final four of an ATP Masters 1000 event, although the Italian did make the Madrid Open quarter-finals in May.

Zverev finished runner-up in that tournament, bringing his total final appearances at that level to 13.

And it is the 29-year-old's weightier experience that led Tim Henman to declare him a heavy favourite.

"It's a two-horse race, isn't it? But I'd give [Cobolli] probably a one in seven, one in eight [chance], I think. Zverev is a clear favourite. He's been in this situation before," said Henman.

"He's playing the best tennis of his life but you just never know. Cobolli could come out there and get that first set under his belt and Zverev gets tight."

And former British No. 1 Anne Keothavong agreed with Henman, arguing that his response to big names being knocked out early has been "impressive."

Keothavong said: "The way Zverev has handled everything that's come his way. Once we lost Sinner, once we lost Djokovic, everyone was talking about Zverev being the overwhelming favourite, and how he has been efficient in the matches he's played since those guys have gone out has been impressive, how he's handled the situation.

"I don't think I have too many doubts about him in this final. He is everyone's overwhelming favourite. I do think on this occasion, yes, he will find a way to handle it better."

Victory would see Zverev become the first German man to win a Grand Slam since Boris Becker at the 1996 Australian Open.

”Germany is watching,” Becker told TNT Sports. ”We’re crossing our fingers. The guy is good enough. He deserves it. He’s been knocking at the door now for 10 or 11 years.

”It’s his fourth major final but that’s the same problem, because he’s failed every time he’s been here.

”Cobolli is not going to give it to him. He’s very talented, he’s very charming, he’s a good athlete but Germany is rooting for one guy, that’s for sure.”

But will the weight of expectation prove too much for Zverev?

”He’s figured out a way to lose in [good moments]," CoCo Vandeweghe told TNT Sports. "He’s had opportunities in two different Grand Slams and lost.

"He led two sets to love in the match against Dominic Thiem at the US Open and served for the match and lost.

"There have been too many moments for me to feel like you can really count on Sascha Zverev when it really matters, on the big stage. That’s why we can’t count Flavio Cobolli out of this match at all.

”Sascha has more to prove and more to lose than anyone in this final.

”It’s all about how you handle situations and I haven’t seen enough of Zverev at a Grand Slam level.
"He’s won everything you could possibly win - Olympic gold, all the Masters 1000 events, and beaten all the big names that we think he should beat. But he hasn't done it at a Grand Slam level.

"That’s the pinnacle of our sport and if he doesn’t do it here, when will he ever do it? You’re thinking, ‘You’ve had no-one to really threaten you, and you need to get yourself over the finish line’. He holds his own destiny.”

The one advantage Cobolli holds over the No. 2 seed is his extended break since knocking out No. 4 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarter-finals.

While the Italian has four days to recover from his four-set victory, Zverev only has two.

But having dropped just two sets across the entire tournament, Zverev was confident he would be fresh for the showdown.

"I feel fine," said Zverev. "I didn't have brutally long matches. I honestly feel like I could play again now, so not really [I don't think Cobolli's extra rest will have an effect on Sunday].

"I think it's not the way that you want a semi-final of a Grand Slam to happen, but I also saw Matteo [Arnaldi] in the locker room and he looked awful, so I understand it. There's nothing much he can do.

"Things like that happen. We're all human. We don't wish for them to happen, but they do and I don't think there's going to be a big difference on Sunday."

Cobolli himself was unsure whether extra rest would help him come Sunday, noting he was concerned about losing his "rhythm."

"Sometimes it helps, sometimes it doesn't. I have almost four days off. It's a lot, so you lose the rhythm, but I think also in the warm-up I played really well. Now I've got practice again, so I think we'll be ready for sure for the final," said Cobolli.

"But I also knew that I would be fresh for sure, so maybe it helps, maybe not. I'll tell you after the final."

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