UEFA Champions League state of play: Who is likely to qualify? Which teams could miss out on knockouts? Who will settle for the play-offs?
Published 25/11/2025 at 12:20 GMT
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Things are heating up in the UEFA Champions League as we approach the business end of the league phase. Eight teams will qualify directly to the last 16 of the tournament, while another 16 will face a play-off. There will be 12 more dumped from Europe's elite club competition. So at the halfway stage, which teams could end up where? Watch the Champions League on TNT Sports and discovery+.
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We are approaching Matchday 5 in the UEFA Champions League, which means we are edging over the halfway point in the league phase.
Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Inter have all enjoyed perfect starts, picking up the maximum 12 points after four games.
German champions Bayern lead the way on goals scored, while Arsenal remain the only side yet to concede - setting the stage for a mouth-watering showdown when the two meet at Emirates Stadium on Wednesday, live on TNT Sports and discovery+.
With 36 teams in the mix, there is a lot to ponder as to how the table could shape up by the final round of matches on Wednesday, January 28 - the league phase finale.
Which teams are likely to qualify? Who could miss out on an automatic spot and face the play-offs? Which teams are in danger of elimination entirely?
Here is a breakdown of the current state of play...
Who will finish in the top eight?
We have already mentioned the likes of Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Inter, who have all maintained 100% starts with four wins from four.
At least one of Bayern and Arsenal are guaranteed to drop points when Mikel Arteta's team welcome Vincent Kompany's side to north London, but the result should not derail either outfit's campaign.
The Gunners also have to play Inter away from home, which could shake things up at the top, while Inter themselves have a tricky run of Atletico Madrid, Liverpool, Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund, which may see them falter towards the end.
Either way, all three teams have given themselves the best chance to progress. Just behind them, though, things get tight.
Just a point separates Manchester City in fourth (10 points) and Galatasaray in ninth (nine points), with defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, Newcastle United, Real Madrid and Liverpool all sandwiched in between on nine points.
The top eight will automatically progress to the last 16, but with the likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Barcelona and Chelsea hovering just outside, it could come down to the run-in.
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With some blockbuster fixtures still to come, it makes things difficult to predict.
Liverpool still have to face Inter while Newcastle and Spurs both have to face PSG, meaning there's still time for a shake-up among the leading contenders.
UCL top 10 ahead of Matchday 5
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Fixtures for teams placed 4th-12th
| MD5 | MD6 | MD7 | MD8 | |
| 4. Man City | B. Leverkusen (H) | R. Madrid (A)* | Bodo/Glimt (A) | Galatasaray (H) |
| 5. PSG | Spurs (H)* | Athletic Club (A) | Sporting (A) | Newcastle (H)* |
| 6. Newcastle | Marseille (A) | B. Leverkusen (A) | PSV (H) | PSG (A)* |
| 7. Real Madrid | Olympiacos (A) | Man City (H)* | Monaco (H) | Benfica (A) |
| 8. Liverpool | PSV (H) | Inter (A)* | Marseille (A) | Qarabag (H) |
| 9. Galatasaray | Union (H) | Monaco (A) | Atletico Madrid (H) | Man City (A)* |
| 10. Spurs | PSG (A)* | Slavia Prague (H) | Dortmund (H) | Frankfurt (A) |
| 11. Barca | Chelsea (A)* | Frankfurt (H) | Slavia Prague (A) | Copenhagen (H) |
| 12. Chelsea | Barca (H)* | Atalanta (A) | Pafos (H) | Napoli (A) |
* indicates a top 8 rival
Who might have to settle for play-offs?
In terms of current form, the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham will be looking over their shoulders, while Turkish giants Galatasaray could be ousted from the top eight over the course of eight matches.
Despite their dreadful Premier League form - where they have lost six of their last seven games - Liverpool are doing just fine in Europe, and could decide to throw everything at the Champions League with their Premier League defence looking rocky.
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Their last win in all competitions came against 15-time European champions Real Madrid, while they also battered Eintracht Frankfurt and defeated Atletico Madrid, despite losing to Galatasaray in between.
As for the Turkish side, a tricky climax could cost them an automatic route to the last 16. As shown above, they face Atletico at home before travelling to Man City on the final matchday.
Spurs also have a tricky run, going to PSG next and facing the likes of Dortmund and Frankfurt away. Coupled with their sticky form under Thomas Frank, which saw them heavily beaten in the North London Derby, it could be a long shot.
Barcelona (11th) against Chelsea (12th) on Tuesday makes for a fascinating match-up. That could change things temporarily, with at least one of them guaranteed to falter. After that, Barca have a favourable run-in, whereas Chelsea face difficult tests against 2023/24 UEFA Europa League winners Atalanta and Italian champions Napoli - both on the road.
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Outside of the top 12, Dortmund, Atletico, Bayer Leverkusen and Napoli are the stand-out names perhaps expected to be further up the table. They have all had difficult starts, and no doubt have the quality to make a late push. But they could heading for the last 32 with things so tight at the top.
Or, could they drop out of the competition altogether?
UCl 11-24 positions ahead of Matchday 5
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Who could face the drop?
That brings us to the teams who could face elimination.
Napoli are just a point above the drop zone (25th and below), with a goal difference of -5. They are in danger, as are Juventus, who are currently 26th - perhaps the most surprising placement of all - having not yet picked up a win.
The 2023/24 German champions, Bayer Leverkusen, are two points above the relegation places, while Atletico are far from safe with just six points from a possible 12. Diego Simeone's side sit 17th.
Further down the table, things look tricky for Ajax, who have lost all four of their games, as have Benfica. The 2021 Europa League winners Villarreal are in danger, having picked up just a point so far, with Olympiacos and Athletic Club among those looking to avoid elimination.
UCL 25-36 places ahead of Matchday 5
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