Pep Guardiola backs Arsenal for the Premier League title after League Cup final heartbreak - but has it been done before?
Published 23/03/2026 at 12:25 GMT
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Will history be on Arsenal's side this season as The Gunners hunt for their first Premier League title in two decades? The past suggests that it is not often a team loses the League Cup final and goes on to win the league title in the same season. But with a nine-point buffer, Pep Guardiola knows that Mikel Arteta's team are the clear favourites as their quadruple dream reduces to a treble chase.
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Pep Guardiola believes that "the Premier League is in Arsenal's hands" after Manchester City beat them in the League Cup final on Sunday.
Nico O'Reilly scored twice at Wembley Stadium to end The Gunners' ambitious quadruple dream, as Mikel Arteta's wait for a first trophy since 2020 goes on.
However, his side are still fighting in the remaining three competitions and are currently nine points clear of Man City - who have a game in hand - at the summit of the Premier League and on track to win their first title since 2004.
Guardiola feels that the League Cup final defeat can spur his rivals on to get over the line at the fourth attempt, after finishing second in each of the last three seasons.
"I would like to be nine points in front to fight for the Premier League," Guardiola said after watching his side lift the League Cup for the fifth time during his tenure.
"I don't think it will have an impact [Man City's League Cup win], different competition, and they will be more concerned when they come to the Etihad.
"The Premier League is in their hands. We have a game in hand and Arsenal at home, and we are going to try to win our games, and we will see what happens."
The League Cup, albeit not the biggest trophy on offer, has been invaluable to Guardiola's reign.
It was the first of the 19 trophies he has now won while at Man City, and it has most certainly been a foundation on which the City boss has achieved his success in the northwest.
"The Carabao Cup is not the Champions League or the Premier League, everyone knows that, but winning against that team [Arsenal] makes the title special," he said after Sunday's win.
Guardiola will hope that City win their game in hand over Arsenal in the Premier League, as well as getting the better of his former assistant again when they meet at Etihad Stadium on Sunday, April 19.
However, he knows that Arsenal are in pole position for the title, but has a team ever gone on to lose the League Cup final and win the Premier League?
Do teams win the title after losing the League Cup final?
The short answer is yes, it has happened, but perhaps not as often as you might think.
Only twice in history has a team failed to lift the first available trophy of the season after reaching its showpiece event, and brushed themselves down in time to get the job done in the league.
Manchester United did it in 1994 after losing 3-1 in the League Cup final to Aston Villa, before running away from Blackburn Rovers and Newcastle United to win their second of 13 titles under Sir Alex Ferguson.
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And the second time it happened was less than a year ago, as Liverpool also wrapped up their second-ever Premier League triumph after disappointment in the League Cup - losing 2-1 to Newcastle, which ended The Magpies' 70-year wait for a domestic trophy.
But how have teams fared in title races, or just the league in general, after losing the League Cup final in recent history?
| Season | League Cup runners-up | Final Premier League position |
| 2015/16 | Liverpool | 8th |
| 2016/17 | Southampton | 8th |
| 2017/18 | Arsenal | 6th |
| 2018/19 | Chelsea | 3rd |
| 2019/20 | Aston Villa | 17th |
| 2020/21 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7th |
| 2021/22 | Chelsea | 3rd |
| 2022/23 | Newcastle | 4th |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea | 6th |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool | 1st |
| 2025/26 | Arsenal | ? |
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