Why Spain are 'big favourites' for FIFA World Cup final glory against Argentina - with one Lionel Messi-shaped asterisk

Luis de la Fuente's side have not always purred during the World Cup, but they appear to be peaking just at the right time, having turned in a consummate team performance to oust the French, who many people saw as the champions-in-waiting.

And for the final, it is the gripping prospect of a clash with Argentina, who saw off England in their semi-final with yet another comeback win.

Competitive meetings between the 2026 finalists are hugely rare, and they have only ever met once before in the World Cup, back in the group stages in 1966 - a game won by Argentina.

In a quirk of fate, the two teams - with Spain the reigning European champions and Argentina the Copa America holders - had been scheduled to meet in the Finalissima in Qatar in March, but that encounter was cancelled due to the ongoing instability in the Middle East.

But there is now the chance of a re-run which will reveal the best international side in the world.

Tracking La Roja's run during the tournament has been TNT Sports' Spanish football expert Phil Kitromilides.

And he has been witness to a gradual step-change in confidence among Spain fans.

Speaking from Madrid, Kitromilides said: "There's a nice phrase in Spanish which kind of sums up how Spain are being viewed, and they say from 'menos' to 'mas'; they've gone 'from less to more' in this competition.

"They've improved almost every round until producing that magnificent showing against France. The euphoria after that semi-final victory was wild and widespread in the media, and on the streets as well.

"I was listening to post-match radio analysis. People were saying, 'We've got to go and win it now. We're going to go and win it. We're massive favourites. We've just demolished France'. Out in the streets, people were celebrating.

"It wasn't just that Spain had made the final for only the second time in their history; it was the way that they did it and who they'd done it against as well.

"And also, another added element, the fact that they started with that 0-0 draw against Cape Verde, and there were so many question marks, and they weren't brilliant when they beat Uruguay, and the group stage was a little bit unsatisfying. But in every round in the knockout stages, they've shown a different facet of play and impressed us in different ways.

"So going 'from less to more', I think, has certainly heightened people's excitement and belief in this team. Spain were pre-tournament favourites, certainly with the bookmakers, and here in the country, people were feeling 'we've got a really good chance, we're one of the favourites'. Nobody was saying, 'We are THE favourites', but everybody was saying, 'We are one of the favourites. We should go there with plenty of belief'.

"The players have exuded a huge amount of confidence and belief right throughout the tournament. They've managed to stay pretty calm, pretty focused on the job at hand. They say that they've gone there to win the World Cup, and they're one game away from it.

"The final, there are a lot of subtexts and subplots and stories up against Argentina, but Spain feel now that they are big, big favourites against Argentina. They would have felt favourites had it been England.

"But they feel that having disposed of France the way that they've done, having beaten who they've beaten in the knockout stages, having been so tremendously solid, and having been able to keep their identity while they're doing all that as well, they're supremely confident ahead of the final."

Much of the discussion in England following their exit to Argentina centered around Tuchel's tactical decisions as the game ebbed away in the second half.

But in Spain, there has been an altogether different lens on that feisty semi-final, focused on one little maestro.

"It [the reaction in Spain] has all been dominated by Lionel Messi and his performance, and what he managed to do in the second half, dragging Argentina from the depths of elimination, not for the first time in this tournament, to success," Kitromilides said.

"Messi's such an unbelievably big figure here in this country as well. Obviously worldwide, we know how famous and loved he is, but the bond that he has with Spain is even deeper.

"From an English perspective, we're interested to know how England are being viewed. But honestly, the aftermath hasn't really been about England. It's been more about Messi and what he managed to do.

"I saw question marks about some of the changes made by Tuchel and how England just sat back, but the narrative is that it was almost inevitable that Messi would find a way, because Messi always finds a way, and he has found a way throughout this tournament.

"So, it's all been framed within the context of Messi being brilliant once again at the age of 39."

And as Kitromilides says, Spain might be bullish going into the final, but they - more than any other country - know that there is an assassin waiting to kill their dreams.

"There's a lot of confidence in Spain, with a little asterisk. There's wariness over Lionel Messi and what he can do and what he has been doing in the World Cup.

"I think Spain, the fans, maybe even the players and the coaching staff probably wanted to play against Argentina in the final. I think they were viewed as the weaker of the two options in terms of a unit, in terms of a team to come up against in a final.

"But there is also massive wariness, and I think there's a huge amount of respect for how they've managed to get to this final, battling their way through every single round, and having Messi lead them to it. So there's massive respect for Argentina and Messi.

"There's a socio-cultural aspect as well. There are so many Argentines that live in Spain, and we saw wild scenes of celebration out on the streets of the major cities, Madrid, Barcelona, Argentines pouring out onto the street to celebrate [their win]. So that's just going to add another little bit of subtext to the final as well.

"I think the belief is that if Spain play at their highest level, they will beat Argentina pretty comfortably. They were really, really good against France, and yet there is still perhaps another gear for them to go up into to really hit the heights.

"I think we've seen Spain be pretty mature in this tournament. They're slightly different to what they were in previous tournaments. Certainly in the Euros, they were perhaps a more visually aesthetic and pleasing side to watch, perhaps a little bit more dynamic and incisive in the final third. But here we've seen them not go back to the stereotypes of just controlling the game, but I think they've been more intelligent with their possession, and they've added a level of competitivity to their game as well.

"They're physically really aggressive. I think they're going to have to be aggressive against Argentina as well. We know how good they are at that part of the game, but this is a Spain side that has matured, that has evolved, and has a solidity about it that's very, very impressive. It's the building block of this team. Having conceded just one goal, getting to the final is enormously eye-catching and impressive.

"But it's not just about the back four, it's about the entire team as well. Everybody's bought into what needs to be done, the ideology, the plan, so they're a really, really strong unit. They've been getting stronger as the tournament goes on, and everybody here in Spain feels like this is going to be the culmination now of all the work that's been put in.

"If you've been getting better and better as the tournament goes on, then here's the final, ready for you to produce your best performance."

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