Opta supercomputer tips clear favourite for FIFA World Cup glory after England win over Mexico - where do France, Spain and Argentina rank?
Updated 06/07/2026 at 09:37 GMT+1
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We have reached the business end of the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the last 16 is underway, with England and Norway through to the quarter-finals, and the Opta supercomputer has made some fresh predictions.
‘So proud’ - Tuchel speaks of mixed emotions after England win over Mexico
Video credit: SNTV
As always, the supercomputer makes tweaks to its predictions as the tournament goes on, based on factors such as previous results and performances, as well as upcoming opponents.
Ahead of the tournament, the supercomputer had initially backed Spain to return to world champion status for the first time since 2010, while Thomas Tuchel’s England were ranked third in the odds.
Argentina were initially ranked the fourth most-likely team to go all the way and defend the crown they won in Qatar four years ago and, after some dazzling Lionel Messi performances, they are now the third most-likely side, according to Opta, to reign supreme in New Jersey.
England were fourth most-likely to win the World Cup according to the supercomputer after the group stage, but they have climbed to second after their memorable 3-2 win over co-hosts Mexico at the Azteca Stadium in the last 16.
France remain the clear favourites to win the tournament, though, with the supercomputer giving Didier Deschamps' side a 31% chance of glory, compared to England's 17%.
Les Bleus have looked phenomenal to this point, breezing through the group stages before thumping Sweden 3-0 in the same stadium where the final will be played, and then holding their nerve against a provocative Paraguay side. Could they meet England in the final on July 19?
Kylian Mbappe is hitting his best form at just the right time, and is up to seven goals as he looks to keep pace with Messi in the Golden Boot race, while France's odds have no doubt received a boost thanks to their favourable run to the final in New Jersey.
They beat Paraguay in the last-16, and will play Morocco for a place in the semi-final after the Moroccans defeated co-hosts Canada 3-0. Morocco are given a 4% chance of winning the tournament.
Meanwhile, Argentina avoided a shock against Cape Verde to book their place in the last 16 against Egypt, with Switzerland or Colombia awaiting the winner.
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If France reach the semi-finals, they will play either the USA, Belgium, Spain or Portugal. Should Argentina return to the last four, England or Norway would stand in their way.
Outside of the top three, Spain are now the supercomputer's fourth favourites with a 13% chance of lifting the World Cup, while Norway are up to 7% after beating Brazil in Miami.
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Opta supercomputer
Image credit: Getty Images
Round of 16 fixtures
A full breakdown of the upcoming games and each team's win probability for their last 16 match, according to Opta.
- Canada (33%) v Morocco (67%) - Morocco won 3-0
- Paraguay (13.4%) v France (86.6%) - France won 1-0
- Brazil (65.6%) v Norway (34.5%) - Norway won 2-1
- Mexico (44.4%) v England (55.6%) - England won 3-2
- Portugal (37.8%) v Spain (62.2%)
- USA (51%) v Belgium (49%)
- Argentina (79.7%) v Egypt (20.3)
- Switzerland (43.4%) v Colombia (56.6%)
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