Neil Hodgson Column: Marco Bezzecchi and Marc Marquez favourites at unpredictable Grand Prix of Brazil, Francesco Bagnaia already under pressure

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Everyone is excited for round two, because after having two weeks off after the first race, it feels like it’s dragging before we can get back to the action. Everyone is really keen to get stuck in and see what happens in Brazil this weekend.

While I have a few ideas about what could happen over the next few days, I’m aware that the potential effects of heavy rainfall, and the fact that the circuit in Brazil is new to the riders racing this weekend, could mean that we are in for the unexpected. Everything comes with a pinch of salt as we wait to see just how things shake out.

With a new track, it’s almost a level playing field. Everyone turns up here without data. It’s like your hard drive has not been backed up. You turn up here, try to push to the limits early on and find the edge. When you come to these kinds of events, you can find a surprise result. It’s a really good opportunity for an unexpected rider to pull off a shock.

Ducati’s Pecco Bagnaia’s concern regarding track flooding is justified. We arrived this morning and there had been a big thunderstorm, and the track is not flooded, but the edges of the track are on the absolute limit. So, if it rains a lot over the next few days, that could be an issue. For now, the weather is another wrinkle to take into account, and it could be thrillingly unpredictable in the next few days.

Another factor that could change how the race weekend goes down is fellow Ducati rider Marc Marquez’s improving fitness. Last year’s champion is now able to ride motocross on successive days, which is the core of his training - it’s vital. 

It was clear at the season opener that he was not at 100% fit, but he was still able to essentially win the Sprint race in Thailand even though he had to drop a spot and take second, so it bodes well for him and not so well for everybody else if he’s back to full fitness. If he is anywhere close to his full fitness, that is a problem for the rest of the pack.

The conditions could play into Marquez’s hands. It’s a new track, and it looks really dirty. If it rains, and it’s wet for the races, it’ll be difficult for everyone, because it looks like the grip levels are going to be inconsistent. I think most of the riders won’t want it to rain. Even Marc won’t want it to be wet, but normally when it’s wet or changeable conditions. Marc is able to adapt really well to that. 

In this regard, Marquez is just like Michael Schumacher. He’s unreal, it’s a natural gift he’s got, to feel the tyres underneath him, and adapt to conditions. The way it works in MotoGP is that during the race, you can come in and swap the bike to another with different tyres. Normally, Marc judges the changeover time perfectly. Some riders stay out too long, some come in too early, but he just seems able to read or judge the track conditions better than most of the other riders.

Franco Morbidelli, who is half Brazilian, might have a bit of an advantage because he’ll have the home support. Diogo Moreira is a home favourite, but he’s a rookie, so that might still be too much for him to take on this time. We can expect the unexpected. For Moreira, Ayrton Senna carries a lot of weight, and for the rest of the world. He’s an incredible sportsman, and Moreira’s helmet in tribute to the Brazilian legend just looks incredible.

I think Marco Bezzecchi has to be considered the favourite going into the weekend, given his recent form. The track is a series of interlinking, long corners, which appears to suit the Aprilia quite well. He starts the weekend as favourite, but you just can't count out Marc.

Pedro Acosta had a great first round and leads the championship, and with an unpredictable track in changing conditions, that could all play into his hands as well, as he’s so skilful. 

While he’s well down the list of contenders, Toprak Razgatlioglu, the track here could be a bit of a leveller. While the Yamaha is far from the most competitive bike here, if he can beat the manufacturer’s other riders this weekend, that would be incredible. Remember, when he crashed out in the Sprint race he was only a couple of seconds behind Fabio Quartararo, which is pretty impressive. I thought he had a really solid start, and he’ll be well aware this is a great opportunity to build some early confidence in his MotoGP career.

Watching Pecco Bagnaia was a bit of a shock in Thailand. It was back to Pecco from last year, just more of the same. But I’m confident - if not for this weekend - that they have improved the Ducati for him this season. I think he will go better this season, but this weekend I’m far from certain. This style of track, these sorts of conditions, he doesn’t spring to mind. It’s a big weekend for him. He had such a disappointing round one, he was appalling. The pressure is on.

Next season, he’ll be 30, and probably at Aprilia. Historically, riders are either way up or on the way down. Rarely do people rebound and go again. Most of these riders have been competing since they were kids, so they’re almost at risk of early burnout. You might have already achieved most of your dreams and earned decent money doing it, so it seems harder to bounce back. 

I’m not writing him off, because whatever is going on now, he’s a two-time world champion, and still can be an incredible rider as he proved at Grand Prix Japan last season. It could all click this weekend, and he could be back on top once again, however unlikely that feels right now. You just never know, and that’s why he’s such an enigma. He’s tough to predict, just like the race to come in Brazil.

Stream every race of the 2026 Brazil Grand Prix live on TNT Sports and discovery+