Arsenal BIG favourites for UEFA Champions League glory as Opta supercomputer delivers latest verdict ahead of Matchday 5 - but where are Liverpool?
Published 25/11/2025 at 13:51 GMT
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Arsenal are big favourites for UEFA Champions League glory as Opta's trusty supercomputer delivers its latest verdict ahead of Matchday 5 - but where are Liverpool in the race for European football's top crown? With another mouthwatering round of Champions League matches ahead this week, watch and stream the action LIVE on TNT Sports and discovery+.
'Finished article' Arsenal are UCL favourites - Cole
Video credit: TNT Sports
Arsenal are taking all before them this season, and have been given a further boost with a supercomputer prediction that has them as clear favourites to win the UEFA Champions League for the first time.
The Gunners, six points clear at the top of the Premier League after 12 games, also have a 100% record in this season's Champions League, and are yet to concede a goal after four games, sitting joint top alongside Bayern Munich.
Now, ahead of Matchday 5 - with their mouthwatering Wednesday night showdown with Bayern to be shown live on TNT Sports and discovery+ - the Gunners have been given a whopping 23% chance of winning this season's competition, 7% more than nearest predicted challengers Bayern.
It is one of many fascinating findings from Opta's prediction engine, as we examine below.
Giants spluttering
As the reigning Premier League champions, and after a huge summer transfer splurge on the likes of Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak, Liverpool's season has not gone as many expected.
To see them lying only fifth in the UCL predictor is a nod to the struggles they have had domestically, but also intermittently in Europe, such as their difficult away defeat to Galatasaray.
A home tie against PSV represents a big chance to build on the European momentum they took from their last Anfield outing in the competition, a 1-0 win over Real Madrid.
Speaking of the Spanish 15-time European champions, they are even further back than Arne Slot's side in sixth, with just a 6% chance - as things stand - of winning a record-extending 16th crown.
Los Blancos sit seventh in the UCL league phase table ahead of Matchday 5, but with rumours continuing to swirl around the relationship between boss Xabi Alonso and Vinicius Junior - and a mixed recent run of form - they need a turnaround in fortunes to threaten the competition's elite this term.
Meanwhile, the supercomputer has spawned grim readings for two-time winners Juventus, who have just a 7% chance of even reaching the quarter-finals.
Former Italy manager Luciano Spalletti took on the club's reins late last month following the sacking of Igor Tudor, as managerial turmoil continues to trouble the Old Lady.
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Opta UCL supercomputer predictions - Nov 25
Image credit: Opta
What about the other English sides?
Chelsea face a big test this week as they take on Barcelona at Stamford Bridge, a tie that will say a lot about their prospects in this season's competition.
Their stellar displays in landing the FIFA Club World Cup over the summer show they can be a hugely effective tournament team - and Opta give them a 10% chance of reaching this year's UCL final in Budapest - but how much will they be hurt by the continuing absence of Cole Palmer?
Manchester City's season continues to have its ups and downs, but they are - per Opta - the third-likeliest team to reach another UCL final, having won the trophy for the first time back in 2023.
Pep Guardiola's side host Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, also on Tuesday on TNT Sports and discovery+, Newcastle travel to Marseille's intimidating Stade Velodrome as they bid to keep up their fine form in this season's UCL.
They are given a 41% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, which would represent a strong performance from Eddie Howe and his men if they can get there - and you would not bet against the Magpies winning a last-eight tie on their day.
Spurs are the lowest-placed English side in the predictor in terms of their likelihood to reach the final, but are given a 28% chance of making the last eight.
Thomas Frank's team face the daunting task of taking on Paris Saint-Germain in their own backyard on Wednesday night, also live on TNT and discovery+.
How does the supercomputer work?
- Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. It can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be.
- The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
- The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create its final predictions.
Selected UCL matches on TNT Sports and discovery+ this week
| Match | Date & time |
| Manchester City v Bayer Leverkusen | Tues, 25 Nov - 20:00 |
| Marseille v Newcastle United | Tues, 25 Nov - 20:00 |
| Arsenal v Bayern Munich | Weds, 26 Nov - 20:00 |
| Atlético Madrid v Inter Milan | Weds, 26 Nov - 20:00 |
| Liverpool v PSV Eindhoven | Weds, 26 Nov - 20:00 |
| Olympiacos v Real Madrid | Weds, 26 Nov - 20:00 |
| PSG v Tottenham Hotspur | Weds, 26 Nov - 20:00 |
Watch and stream the Premier League, Men’s and Women’s FA Cup, UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, UEFA Conference League and more on TNT Sports and discovery+
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