UEFA Champions League permutations: What Premier League clubs need to qualify in top eight with final round of fixtures live on TNT Sports

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Five of the six Premier League sides competing in this season's UEFA Champions League occupy top-eight positions but there is plenty still at stake heading into the final league phase matchweek - when all 18 fixtures will be shown live on TNT Sports and discovery+. Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham are all aiming to join Arsenal in qualifying for the round of 16.

'It's winner takes all' - McCoist weighs up English team's chances in Champions League qualification

Video credit: TNT Sports

Arsenal may be guaranteed a place in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 but the five other Premier League sides are yet to learn their fate heading into the final round of league phase fixtures this Wednesday, January 28, live on TNT Sports and discovery+.

Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur will all be hoping to join Mikel Arteta's side in sealing a top-eight finish and thereby avoiding a two-legged play-off next month.

Teams finishing ninth through to 24th will face off in that additional round in February, while those placed 25th to 36th will be eliminated.

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With all 36 teams simultaneously in action at 20:00 UK time, we run through all the various permutations involving the six Premier League clubs and take a look at which sides are in most danger of dropping out altogether.

Which clubs are guaranteed a last-16 berth?

So far, after seven rounds, only two teams have qualified for the last 16.

Arsenal's 100% record (21 points) has them on track to finish top of the league phase, with the visit of rock-bottom Kairat from Kazakhstan the only game with nothing riding on it besides pride.

The Gunners' 3-1 victory away to Inter, coupled with other results on Matchday 7, means they are guaranteed to finish in the top two, which grants them a second-leg home game all the way to the semi-finals - should they progress.

Highlights: Arsenal remain perfect with victory over Inter

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Arteta's side will want to finish with eight wins but a point will secure top spot. Bayern Munich, whom they defeated in November, will be hoping for a slip-up but the Bavarians are at least assured of a top-eight finish. A point at PSV will secure second place for Vincent Kompany's team.

Which clubs are assured of a knockout play-off?

All six Premier League clubs have - at the very least - booked a play-off spot, meaning none of them can finish outside the top 24. But that is where the clarity ends and the variables begin.

Liverpool - currently in fourth on 15 points - are among three English clubs fully in control of their own destiny. Arne Slot's side know that a win against Qarabag at Anfield will secure a place in the round of 16 as well as a home second leg of any potential quarter-final tie.

Highlights: Salah returns as Liverpool silence Marseille crowd with impressive win

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A single point could suffice depending on results elsewhere.

A place below them is Spurs (14 points), whose 2-0 win over Borussia Dortmund boosted automatic hopes that will now be carried with them to Germany to face already-eliminated Eintracht Frankfurt.

Spurs overcame Frankfurt en route to the Europa League final last season and a repeat of that success would guarantee a top-eight finish. Like Liverpool, a draw could still be enough depending on a series of results involving a chasing pack featuring eight sides on 13 points.

Newcastle visit Paris Saint-Germain in effectively a winner-takes-all encounter in Paris, with a draw at the Parc des Princes not guaranteeing safe progress for either, although their superior goal difference compared to the six other clubs locked on 13 points could prove enough.

Highlights: Spurs beat Dortmund to ease pressure on Frank

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Defeat against the holders would almost certainly lead to a knockout play-off for Eddie Howe's team. But were they to drop out of the top eight, Newcastle would at least likely take solace from having the second leg at St James' Park by virtue of finishing between ninth and 16th.

Still inside the top eight are Chelsea, who travel to Serie A champions Napoli on the final night. The tie sees Antonio Conte face his former club in Naples, with the Italians currently in 25th place on eight points.

Arguably the game with the most at stake, Napoli will be determined to keep their Champions League hopes alive. They are one of five teams on eight points - three of which currently sit within the playoff spots via goal difference.

Goal difference will almost certainly be key for Chelsea, too, and means even a win would leave Liam Rosenior sweating on results elsewhere. The Blues are within the aforementioned eight-team pack on 13 points.

Highlights: Ruthless Newcastle ease past PSV

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Then there is Man City (11th on 13 points), whose European campaign has flattered to deceive with victory at Real Madrid followed by a catastrophic 3-1 reverse at Bodo/Glimt.

Who knows which City side will show up when they host Galatasaray on the final night, knowing they will need other results to go their way to prevent a second successive season in a play-off round, unless they can rack up a big win.

With both Sporting and Barcelona currently above them in the table, but on the same number of points, whether Pep Guardiola's side avoid the potential perils of another two-legged shootout for a last-16 spot, could well come down to goal difference.

Highlights: Caicedo spares Chelsea blushes with late winner

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Who is in danger of elimination?

Of the 16 clubs placed ninth to 24th entering Matchday 8, 10 maintain hopes of finishing inside the top eight.

That includes Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Inter, all of whom are guaranteed a play-off. The La Liga pair are only outside the top eight on goal difference and will be heavily expected to win home games against Copenhagen and Bodo/Glimt, respectively.

Serie A giants Inter, along with compatriots Juventus, are a point behind on 12 having won their first four fixtures before losing the past three, but face a tricky trip to Borussia Dortmund, who are 16th and two points off eighth.

So far, only four sides have been knocked out ahead of their final league phase match - Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal and Kairat.

Highlights: Man City implode in shock loss to Bodo/Glimt

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They will be joined by another eight clubs come the end of Wednesday's smorgasbord of action. Ajax, Union Saint-Gilloise, Pafos, Benfica and Bodo/Glimt must all win to secure a play-off spot; any other outcome would result in elimination.

The trio of clubs best-positioned for any slip-ups among those currently occupying play-off spots are Napoli, Copenhagen and Club Brugge, who must avoid defeat to have any chance of progress.

State of play

Confirmed in round of 16
Arsenal, Bayern Munich.

Confirmed in round of 16 or knockout phase play-offs
Atalanta, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea, Inter, Juventus, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, PSG, Real Madrid, Sporting, Spurs.

Eliminated
Frankfurt, Kairat Almaty, Slavia Prague, Villarreal.

The probability of top-eight qualification

Image credit: Opta

Manchester City are currently placed outside the top eight

Image credit: Opta

Final round of league-phase fixtures

Wednesday, January 28 - all games live on TNT Sports and discovery+ (20:00 GMT)

Athletic v Sporting
Liverpool v Qarabag
Barcelona v Copenhagen
Monaco v Juventus
Ajax v Olympiacos
PSG v Newcastle
Dortmund v Inter
Napoli v Chelsea
Eintracht Frankfurt v Spurs
Atletico Madrid v Bodo/Glimt
Leverkusen v Villarreal
Arsenal v Kairat
Pafos v Slavia Prague
Manchester City v Galatasaray
Club Brugge v Marseille
Benfica v Real Madrid
Union Saint-Gilloise v Atalanta
PSV v Bayern Munich

When is the draw for the knockout round play-offs?

The draw for the knockout round play-offs, involving clubs that finish ninth to 24th, will take place on January 30 at 11:00 UK time and will be broadcast live on TNT Sports.

How to watch UCL matchday 8 on TNT Sports and discovery+

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